State playoff picture will come into focus

From being fans of bone-crunching hits, football coaches turn into number-crunching fiends this time of year.

What are the chances of making the playoffs?

What are the chances of getting a top seed?

What team is the most likely opponent? How will the state's eight classes and brackets be divided?

It's an annual rite of passage: trying to out-think the IHSA prior to the release of the eight-class system football playoff pairings on the last day of the season, which will be Saturday.

"It took me about an hour, an hour-and-a-half, maybe, to figure it out," Carmel coach Andy Bitto said. "You look at records, geography, how the IHSA might split up the state, and you look at points. I think I have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen to us."

Heading into the final games of the regular season tonight, Lake County has four sure-thing playoff teams in undefeated Stevenson, Warren, Carmel and Vernon Hills. All four of those teams have at least 6 wins, which is an automatic qualifier.

"I always think positively, so I made the assumption that we'll win on Friday (against Nazareth)," Bitto said. "That would make us 7-2 and I think we'd be either a fifth or sixth seed in Class 7A. I'm going to predict that we're going to play Rolling Meadows."

Lake Zurich and Lakes aren't as concerned about specific opponents as just simply wanting to make sure they'll still playing beyond this week.

Both teams should qualify for the playoffs, and in fact, they'll be guaranteed of that if they win their final games tonight to record their sixth wins.

But even if they lose and stay at 5 wins apiece, the playoff picture looks good for both Lake Zurich and Lakes.

Playoff spots of 5-win teams are awarded based on playoff points, the points a team gets for the victories of an opponent.

The Bears and the Eagles have 44 and 35 playoff points respectively, two of the highest totals in their conferences.

Lake Zurich got 12 points from its nonconference opponents (Fremd and Wheaton North), and Lakes was also fortunate in that regard. The Eagles got 13 points alone from Chicago Perspectives (7-2) and Harvard (6-2).

"It's great to get those kinds of points," Antioch coach Brian Glashagel said. "That was good scheduling on their part."

Glashagel's Sequoits join Libertyville as the two local teams sitting on the proverbial playoff bubble. But Libertyville's place is a bit more secure.

At 4-4, Libertyville needs to defeat a 1-7 Mundelein team tonight to hit the minimum 5-win mark. The Wildcats would then likely coast into the playoffs because they have 39 playoff points, one of the highest totals in the state for a Class 7A team.

Last year, Libertyville also squeaked into the playoffs at 5-4 by beating Lake Forest in its regular-season finale. It was redemption for the Wildcats, who lost to Lake Forest in their final regular-season game in 2007 and missed the playoffs at 4-5.

"This is our third year in a row in this situation," Libertyville coach Randy Kuceyeski said. "You don't like having to get in that way. There's a lot riding in that last (regular-season) game. It's stressful for everyone to think about.

"But we also know that the success of our program has a lot to do with getting to the playoffs each year. You'd love to be in the position to rest guys in your final game because you know that you're in (the playoffs). But we want to end the year on a good note and keep up our playoff tradition so we're going to do whatever we can to do that."

At Antioch, a tradition of advancing deep into the playoffs, not to mention qualifying for the playoffs in the first place, might not be quite ready to take off.

The Sequoits put together a dream undefeated regular season last year and then marched all the way to the state semifinals before losing to Lemont 38-14. Expectations were high that similar success could be achieved this year.

But a rash of injuries and disciplinary issues hit Antioch hard this season, which has resulted in a 4-4 mark. Because of a low number of playoff points (28), the Sequoits could get their fifth win tonight against Round Lake but would likely be on the outside looking in during the pairings show.

"I would think it's less than a 50 percent chance that we get in," Glashagel said. "When we had three games left, I told the guys that we needed to go 3-0 because 5-4 wasn't going to get us in. Now that we're in this situation, you can tell there's a lot of disappointment.

"We're not in a great situation, but the thing I like is that some teams would be excited to be 4-4 and just getting the chance to get in the playoffs at 5-4. We've set the bar so high now that being 5-4 is not a good season for us.