Who's in, who's out & who plays where?

I wish I had Scott Johnson's computer.

Johnson, the Elgin High graduate who is a longtime assistant executive secretary for the Illinois High School Association, is a computer guru. And with Week 9 of the football season upon us, having a program to simulate playoff possibilities would be heaven for a high school sports writer.

Things were much easier to predict prior to eight classes of football and 5-4 teams qualifying for the playoffs. I remember a few years back calling coaches prior to their Week 9 games to see who they thought they'd be playing. Most times, they were right. Now, there's no way a coach can sit down, look at the IHSA's online Playoff Outlook, and accurately predict where his team might be playing next week. In fact, longtime playoff coaches Tom Meaney of Bartlett and Bruce Kay of Cary-Grove told the Daily Herald's Jerry Fitzpatrick this week they don't even try to figure it out anymore.

Then there's those potential 5-4 teams. In the Fox Valley area this week we're talking about Larkin and Hampshire, which both need to win tonight to become playoff eligible with 5-4 records. Bartlett was 5-3 heading into Thursday's game against East Aurora, which should have been a Hawks' win, assuring them of their eighth straight playoff berth.

If the Royals and Whip-Purs win tonight, they'll have a nervous Saturday waiting for the pairings to come out to see if they're in because neither has enough playoff points (combined wins of all opponents) to be assured of a postseason berth if they do win tonight. But they're close, and that's what makes this so interesting for us and nerve-wracking for them.

Let's take a closer look at the area's playoff possibilities by team, and just for the heck of it take a stab at who they might play. I won't reveal what Johnson told me about his simulations of a couple teams, so this is just unscientific guesswork on my part.

Cary-Grove: All the Trojans have to do is beat Woodstock tonight to put the wraps on another Fox Valley Conference Valley Division title. Going into tonight, C-G is the No. 7 seed in Class 7A but there are a couple of possibilities for them to move up a notch or two. At 8-1, the Trojans will surely get a first-round home game and we'll guess that first-rounder will be against Wheeling, which should be 6-3 after beating 1-7 Elk Grove tonight. There is a slim possibility that Cary-Grove could slip back into Class 6A, setting up a possible rematch with Prairie Ridge down the road, but a multitude of things would have to happen tonight and Saturday for the Trojans to go down a class and the odds are slim.

Crystal Lake South: The 6-2 Gators are the No. 19 seed in Class 7A heading into tonight's matchup against 6-2 McHenry. Provided Cary-Grove does beat Woodstock tonight, the South-McHenry matchup becomes an important one in terms of seeding and the possibility of a home game. Some, not all, 7-2 teams get first-round home games while 6-3 teams are most always sent on the road in the first round. So let's say South does beat McHenry to finish 7-2 and moves up a few seeds to, say, a 14 or a 15. Even if that happens, the thought here is the Gators will have to hit the road west and play at either Rockford Guilford or Hononegah.

Prairie Ridge: Assuming the Wolves handle Johnsburg tonight to finish 9-0, they will likely remain the No. 3 seed - behind Richards and Normal Community - in Class 6A. It appears there could be as many as five 5-4 teams getting into the 6A party, and the guess here is that Vernon Hills will be PR's first-round matchup.

Burlington Central: The Rockets are in a situation tonight where with a win over Harvard they can finish 7-2 and be a conference champion, which would bode well for a possible home game. It does not appear there will be enough of an enrollment change to drop BC back into Class 4A, so winning tonight is paramount for the Rockets to get a decent seed. A loss and a 6-3 overall mark could mean a Saturday trip to top-ranked Montini. However, a win tonight and a 7-2 record, we'll say, will get BC a home game next week against Glen Kozlowski's Wauconda Bulldogs.

Bartlett: The Hawks should be 6-3 this morning but whether that helps their No. 28 seed in Class 8A or not remains to be seen. It will likely be a first-round road game for Meaney's club and much will depend on where the IHSA draws the geographic lines for the state's biggest class. But I threw the dart and it landed in Park Ridge, where we think Bartlett will play Maine South next week.

Larkin: First, the Royals must win tonight against 6-2 Waubonsie Valley to become playoff eligible. Then, they have to hope they have enough points. Larkin would be in Class 7A and with 33 playoff points now, they still have a legitimate chance of ending up with 39-40 points. The cut last year was 38 and one can pretty much figure on it being in the 36-38 range again this year. So if Larkin wins tonight and gets favorable results from its opponents, it could make it in. But the Royals are most definitely on a bubble that's close to bursting. A win tonight and enough points, we'll say, would give Larkin the deja vu trip to Rockford next week to play Boylan again.

Hampshire: The Whips are in a better position to win tonight, playing 0-8 Marengo in what will likely be the last varsity football game at the current Hampshire High School, as well as Hampshire coach Dan Cavanaugh's 100th career win. Then the waiting game will begin, not only to see if Hampshire has enough points but which class it would be in. With a football enrollment of 603, the Whips are currently in Class 4A. But the cut back to 3A is 578 so it's not too far-fetched to think that could happen. Hampshire comes into tonight with a scant 32 playoff points and is assured of picking up three more points from the winners of the Burlington-Harvard, Winnebago-Rockford Lutheran and Richmond-North Boone games. A 36th point could come from 7-1 Genoa beating 3-5 Byron, but then a 37th would have to come from 1-7 St. Edward knocking off 4-4 Marmion, which is also fighting for its playoff life. At 36, it's possible the Whips will get in. The downside is, it's looking like a first-round trip to six-time defending state champ Driscoll might be next week's challenge.

However it all shakes out, this weekend is one of the absolute most fun times of the year in high school sports.

And if none of the above comes true, I will remain eternally grateful I'm not paid based on the accuracy of my predictions.