Glenbard preparing for drop in enrollment

Enrollment in Glenbard High School District 87 will drop about 9 percent over the next six years, according to a demographer working for the district.

A report compiled by John Kasarda indicates the decrease will most affect Glenbard East in Lombard and Glenbard North in Carol Stream. Enrollment at Glenbard West and Glenbard South, both in Glen Ellyn, is expected to remain relatively flat through 2025.

School officials will take the data into account when they make their annual five-year projections, which they will release next month.

Assistant Superintendent for Business Services Chris McClain said it's too early to speculate on what the enrollment numbers mean beyond a change in financial projections. But he said there are questions that must be asked.

"We need to load our five-year projections and various scenarios to determine if we have solid projections," he said. "If we don't, we have to see what actions we can take to make sure we are favorable into the future. Are there other areas where we can be more cost-effective? It would be way too premature to even talk about them."

This year, the district's sixth-day enrollment numbers were just shy of projections at 8,918. The report has that number dropping every year until 2017, when overall enrollment is expected to dip to 8,110.

If that projection is correct, it would be the fewest number of students at the Glenbard schools since 1998.

A quick rebound is expected to bring those numbers back near 8,400 where it would level off until 2025.

At North, the decrease is expected to be nearly 20 percent, with a drop from 2,677 to 2,165 in 2016-2017.

The projections are based on a formula that takes into account factors such as population and housing trends in the nine communities the district serves. The district appears to be taking the opportunity to investigate boundary maps for the schools, although school officials said it is much too early to talk about as they just received the 100-plus page report earlier this month.

In a recent board packet, officials indicated two steps to be taken in reaction to the projected drop in enrollment.

The first was to update five-year projections. The second was a vaguely worded call for administrators to propose a "high-level plan" that would "improve school balance within the district in the area of size, diversity, etc."