Playoff outlook not perfect science, but fun to do

With growth comes growing pains. If current predictions still ring true after Week 9 of the football season, Burlington Central and Hampshire will learn that first-hand.

As we enter Week 7 of the high school football campaign, it's time to take a look, conference-by-conference, at some playoff possibilities. We won't try to predict playoff matchups as long ago we decided it was best to leave that to coaches and the IHSA's dartboard. But it's become a yearly tradition prior to Week 7 games to take a look at the conference races and playoff possibilities around the area.

So without further adieu, we dust off the crystal ball and take a look at the remainder of the season.

Upstate Eight: It might look topsy-turvy by glancing at the standings but if you look at the remainder of the UEC schedule it's crystal clear. If St. Charles East beats South Elgin Saturday and St. Charles North next week, the Saints win the UEC title with a 6-0 record. SCE's Week 9 game is a nonconference affair at Thornridge and if the Saints win these next two weeks all that game will mean to them is a better playoff seed.

However, if St. Charles East should stumble in one of its next two games the door is wide open for, well, the same mess the unbalanced UEC has had in the past with determining a conference champion. Waubonsie Valley, Bartlett, Larkin, St. Charles North and South Elgin all have one conference loss right now and Neuqua Valley two. Bartlett, which is seeking its eighth straight playoff appearance, is in a great position to finish 7-2 and get a home playoff game. If the Hawks can knock Neuqua out of playoff contention tonight, then win their nonconference game at Thornridge (currently 0-6) and finish by whipping lowly East Aurora, coach Tom Meaney's group could play at Millennium Field in Round 1 of the Class 8A playoffs. There's no guarantee, but it's a possibility.

Larkin, at 3-3, may have the toughest road to a playoff berth. While the Royals are still alive in the conference hunt, they host St. Charles North tonight, play rival Elgin next week and then finish at home against Waubonsie Valley. There's no question Larkin could finish 6-3, but don't count out a 3-6 ending either. Those are three tough games for coach Dave Bierman's group.

Let's not forget that Elgin is still alive for a playoff berth, as is South Elgin. The Maroons' chances look a little better than the Storm's though. Elgin has a real chance to finish 5-4 as it plays at East Aurora tonight, Larkin next week and then finishes with a Lake Park team that has been shutout the last four weeks. Want a cool story? How about the Maroons winning out then making the playoffs at 5-4? It would be Elgin's first playoff berth since 2001 and first under coach Tom Kim and I can't think of a better way for Kenny Williams, Tom Roth and the rest of the Elgin seniors to go out than with a playoff bid. At 5-4, the Maroons will have to have enough points to qualify and that whole point thing is something we'll take a look at in future weeks. Right now Elgin has 23 playoff points but with three weeks to go, you need a math degree to figure out how many points the Maroons might end up with.

South Elgin's bid for its first playoff berth looks to be much tougher. The Storm stands at 2-4 overall and must win out against St. Charles East, Waubonsie Valley and Streamwood to stand a chance.

A little new twist to this yearly column is the predicted order of finish, which in the UEC we'll say will go: St. Charles East wins the conference, Bartlett's in at 7-2, Waubonsie makes it at 6-3, Larkin sneaks in at 5-4 and, yes, Elgin makes it at 5-4.

Fox Valley (Valley):ŒIt seems to come down to Cary-Grove vs. Crystal Lake South every year but there's a new player in the Valley division title hunt and that's McHenry.

The Valley has some of the more interesting matchups these final three weeks as Cary-Grove, CL South, McHenry and Jacobs all take aim on a possible conference title. Cary-Grove plays at McHenry tonight in a battle of 2-0 conference teams. The Trojans then battle CL South next week and South hosts McHenry in Week 9. And Jacobs can't be counted out after its upset of South last week. The Golden Eagles are 1-1 in the league and with a win over Woodstock tonight, next week's game at McHenry would mean an awful lot. Then Jacobs plays District 300 rival Dundee-Crown in Week 9 in what could be a conference title-clinching game if things fall right for coach Dean Schlueter's squad.

While McHenry is 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the league, the Warriors have the toughest schedule these final three weeks with Cary-Grove, Jacobs and CL South on the docket.

Predicted order of finish: Cary-Grove wins it, CL South finishes 8-1, McHenry finishes 6-2 and Jacobs 5-4 with enough points for a berth.

Fox Valley (Fox): Prairie Ridge's Week 9 home game against Johnsburg is shaping up to be a battle for the outright division title, if the Skyhawks can get past Crystal Lake Central tonight and winless Grayslake North next week. But in reality it would take a Mets-like collapse for Prairie Ridge to not finish 9-0 and enter the Class 6A playoffs as a very high seed.

Predicted order of finish: Only two Fox teams make it to the playoffs -- PR at 9-0 and Crystal Lake Central at 7-2.

Big Northern East: Remember that opening statement about growth? As it stands now, if Burlington Central qualifies for its seventh playoff berth this decade, the Rockets will, for the first time, be in Class 5A. Central finishes the season at North Boone tonight, at Hampshire next week and at Harvard in Week 9. If the Rockets win out, which will tough to do if standout Jason Wagner doesn't return from injury, they'll be 7-2 and conference champs. Would the IHSA send them to, say, Marian Central? Or, will enough happen around the state in the next three weeks to allow BC to slip back into 4A. The current enrollment cutoff between 4A and 5A is 895 and BC's football enrollment is 931, so that is a definite possibility. One thing's for sure -- coach Aaron Wichman isn't taking anything for granted. His squad should win at North Boone tonight to become playoff eligible, but knocking off Hampshire and Harvard on the road will be a daunting task.

Hampshire, meanwhile, is in the same enrollment situation as Burlington. Hampshire's football enrollment is 603 and the cut between Class 3A and 4A is 588 right now. If the 4-2 Whip-Purs, who finish with home games against Richmond tonight, Burlington next week and winless Marengo in Week 9, do qualify for the playoffs they could be in 4A again, as they were in 2005.

Predicted order of finish: Loyalty is one thing, reality is another. Without Wagner the Rockets are going to be hard-pressed to win the league title. Sorry guys, but Harvard (which gets patsy tune-ups for the Week 9 BC game by playing Marengo tonight and North Boone next week, wins the BN-East this year and goes 8-1 overall. BC gets in at 6-3, as does Hampshire. What class will the Rockets and Whip-Purs be in? Who the heck knows? But wouldn't it be cool if they both ended up in 4A and played each other in the first round?

Suburban Catholic: Another dogfight to the finish. The three kingpins of the SCC -- Marian Central, Driscoll and Montini -- will battle each other these next three weeks to decide the league title. Marian hosts Montini tonight and Driscoll next week then finishes with St. Francis; Driscoll has Aurora Central tonight then Marian and Montini; and, Montini plays St. Edward in Week 8 in between its games with Marian and Driscoll. Class-wise Driscoll is firmly entrenched in 4A while Marian and Montini will be in 5A.

Predicted order of finish: I have the utmost respect for coach Ed Brucker and the Marian program. Marian wins it and goes 9-0, Driscoll is in at 8-1 and Montini at 7-2. Marmion from the SCC should also get in at 6-3.

So there it is. The not-so-clear playoff picture as it stands now. Stay tuned, because there's much more to come in the next few weeks.