Time for annual tourney predictions

This could be the year that has people clamoring for term limits on my making the annual predictions for the Class 3A and 4A boys basketball state tournaments.

Maybe four years is enough and it's time to vote someone else into this game. The record the first three years hasn't been an overwhelming success.

Or maybe this is the year where a late campaign push wins over a large pocket of observers. We'll find out this weekend in the Peoria Civic Center's Carver Arena.

Class 3A

Semifinals

Brooks (28-3) vs. Rock Island (28-3), 12:15 p.m. Friday: New school vs. old school. Chicago vs. Quad Cities.

Brooks isn't even a decade old but is here for the first time after winning a Public League title.

Rock Island hasn't been here since 2000 but won the first of seven trophies when it finished second in the inaugural state tourney in 1908.

Both come in red-hot. Brooks has won 18 straight since losing to Simeon and Bogan. Rock Island has won 16 in a row.

And both coaches are familiar with the surroundings. First-year Brooks coach Bobby Locke took third at Evanston in 2009 and Rock Island coach Thom Sigel won a title at Rock Falls in 1999.

Brooks has a dynamic backcourt in Wisconsin-bound senior George Marshall (17 ppg) and senior Mike Powell (18.7 ppg, 58 3-pointers). Marshall missed half the year with injuries but that allowed Powell to emerge. There is also size in 6-7 twins Keith and Kevin Clay combining for 27 points and 21 rebounds a game.

Rock Island counters with 6-2 Stanford-bound senior Chasson Randle (22.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg), one of best ever out of the Quad Cities. Randle has been part of a climb from 12 to 21 to 23 to 28 wins in his varsity career.

Royce Muskeyvalley (8 ppg, 5 apg) runs the show and 6-8 Denzel McCauley (10.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg) gets it done inside.

The pick: Brooks has handled its competition by an average of 30 points a game. But it's tough to go against Randle and the Rocks' 19-point win over Bogan has me taking them 72-68.

Centralia (29-4) vs. North Chicago (17-13), 2:15 p.m. Friday: Another old vs. new matchup — this one featuring the deep south against the far north of Lake County.

Centralia is one of the state's most storied programs with the last of three titles under legendary Arthur Trout in 1942. The last of its five other top-four trophies came when it was third in 2002.

This group of Orphans relies on patience (52.7 points a game) and defense (44 points a game) — which makes quite a contrast in styles against up-tempo North Chicago (76.2 ppg). R.J. Kwiatkowski (16.7 ppg), a 6-2 guard, leads a Centralia team that has won all of its postseason games by 9 points or less.

North Chicago coach Gerald Coleman is known as the King and must feel like it right now after finally getting a school that means so much to him to win a supersectional for the first time in five tries. Coleman scored 24 points in a 62-60 loss in the 1972 super to Evanston.

This year's team entered the postseason at 12-13 but was well-prepared against a tough schedule. It showed in the way it dismantled Crane by a not-as-close 78-66 score in the supersectional.

The scary part was all-state guard Aaron Simpson (22.5 ppg) only had 12 points. The Warhawks showed they aren't a one-man show with guard Maurice Gordon (11 ppg) and about 8 points apiece from Marzhon Bryant, Daryle Pearson and Jaylen Linson.

The pick: The fearlessness and poise North Chicago played with Tuesday was impressive. Plus they'll also have a rare height advantage. The Warhawks will take the most losses ever into a title game with a 60-53 win.

Third place, 12:15 p.m. Saturday: How teams respond to the end of their state title dreams is always a question mark. I'll go with Brooks' talent for a 66-58 win.

Title, 2 p.m. Saturday: A Lake County team has never won a title and neither has Rock Island. Randle caps his career in style to complete the Rocks' set of top-four trophies in a 70-60 win.

Class 4A

Semifinals

Glenbard East (27-3) vs. Simeon (28-2), 6:30 p.m. Friday: Most observers figured this would be another big matchup between Benet and Simeon. But strange things happen on the way to state tournaments.

Last year was supposed to be Glenbard East's big year. But it's here as it navigated arguably the state's toughest sectional with wins over Downers Grove South and East Aurora and Ryan Boatright.

The Rams have their dynamic duo of 6-3 Illinois State recruit Johnny Hill (20.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Northern Illinois-bound point guard Zach Miller (13.1 ppg, 8.4 apg), the son of coach Scott Miller. Six-6 Dante Bailey can score inside and outside and Tyree York and Kevin Priebe fill their roles well.

Defending 4A champion Simeon has turned into a dynasty under the discipline of Robert Smith, who also won titles in 2006 and 2007 and took second in 2008. He's continued the lead of predecessor Bob Hambric, who won the school's first crown in 1984.

The scary part for the rest of the state is first-team all-stater and 6-7 Jabari Parker (15 ppg, 6 rpg) is one of the country's top sophomores. Kendrick Nunn (8.3 ppg) is also a sophomore and 6-7 Steve Taylor (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) is a junior.

The Wolverines aren't invincible — after winning their first 23 they lost by 14 points to Whitney Young and by 4 points to Benet to end the regular season. But their closest postseason margin is 14 points.

The pick: Glenbard East has proved how good it is with the teams it has beaten in its sectional. But Simeon will eventually pull away late 72-58.

Normal Community (27-6) vs. Warren (30-3), 8:15 p.m. today: When Warren finished second in the state in 1999, coach Chuck Ramsey joked before the then-AA Elite Eight that his team might be picked ninth because it was such an unknown commodity.

Not the case this time with a team that was state-ranked all year, played Simeon as tough as anyone in the prestigious Pontiac Holiday Tournament championship and has won 16 games in a row en route to a school record for victories.

The balanced Blue Devils have size, athletes, depth and experience — particularly on the sideline where Ramsey has never finished any of his 18 seasons with a losing record.

Anyone can break out at any time offensively as seniors Brandon Ferguson and Jeremiah Jackson (6-5) and juniors Darius Paul (6-7), Nathan Boothe (6-8) and JoVaughn Gaines all average between 8 and 11 points a game. Junior Jameris Smith is an offensive energizer off the bench.

Normal Community had never won a supersectional until Tuesday. The Ironmen are also balanced as junior guard Anthony Beane (14.3 ppg) is getting Division I interest and 6-8 Peter Musselman (13 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-4 Anthony Goodar (10.9 ppg) will try to counter Warren's size inside.

The pick: Watching Warren against Fremd in the sectional semifinals was impressive. The Blue Devils return to the title game 65-50.

Third place, 6:30 p.m. Saturday: Normal and Glenbard East will no doubt put out their best effort in this one. But it's Miller and Hill going out as winners 62-54.

Title, 8:15 p.m. Saturday: Warren has played Simeon as tough as anyone through the years. The Blue Devils clearly aren't intimidated by the skill and acclaim of the Public League powerhouse.

But Simeon seems to find a way to win late and it will add another title 55-49.