2025 promises to be better year for restaurants and diners

The restaurant world was thrown into turmoil during COVID and then things got worse! Rapidly rising prices, food shortages, supply chain issues, severe lack of staff, lower sales, increased payroll — and all of that is just the tip of the COVID iceberg.

However, after all this time the sun is beginning to shine. This is looking to be a better year for restaurants, which means it will be a better year for restaurant diners. Inflation is beginning to settle down, supply chains are fully back in action, the food supply is 90% stable, chef school enrollment is increasing, staff is beginning to return, and hourly rates that are 30% higher than pre-COVID have leveled for now.

Let’s look at how all this sunshine is going to affect the guest.

Restaurant prices

Some of my restaurant clients have had to increase menu prices more than 10 times in the past two years. In the last eight or so months, inflation has stabilized enough so that we have not had to raise any prices. Restaurants are becoming more strategic to help keep prices down or at least more competitive.

Reducing menu size has improved staff efficiency, cut waste and lowered inventory. Value meals for fast food operations and combinations for full service are offering real, not perceived, savings for diners.

I agree with all of you: Going to restaurants today is expensive, but it is nice to know that we should be staying at this new reality for a while without prices jumping every week.

How you dine is changing

We in the restaurant industry are watching you, our guests, and your changing dining behavior.

Because you want to continue to dine out, you are rethinking how you spend your dollars. A meal that cost $30 a few years ago can now cost as much as $50, which is a substantial jump. Based on this scenario, dinner for you and a friend was $60 and, now, that good time costs you $100, and you will get the same dinner, maybe with smaller portions.

Now you are being strategic by trying to bring that check back to $60. You are sharing one appetizer or one entrée with dining companions. You may have a glass of wine or a cocktail, but not both. I have spoken to several guests who, to keep the check down, will have their adult beverage at home before going to the restaurant.

The good news is that you are going out more than ever, even if you are doing it on a bit of a financial diet.

Restaurant openings

We have lost a lot of great restaurants since COVID. However, I promised you sunshine and here it is: There will be a lot of new restaurant openings in the next 24 months and some great new regional chains will be expanding.

We will see a number of versions of the Nashville Hot Chicken concepts, as well as healthy quick-service concepts like Cava. There are more than a dozen great chefs opening restaurants in Chicago in 2025, so there will be no shortage of great places to eat at a wide range of price points.

At the same time, these restaurants will be competing on one additional level: quality. In order to continue to bring you in, these restaurants understand that the food quality must be excellent and consistent.

I hope you’ll share your dining experiences with me this year and see if my predictions hold up!

The last bit of good news

Over the past few years, restaurants have been taking a beating about bad service and I’m one of the loudest in this particular arena. The good news here is restaurants are beginning to invest more time and money into training and staff retention. Better service means more return business and that is the lifeblood of every restaurant.

We can look forward to more stable prices, better service and be on the lookout for restaurants that are offering more dynamic pricing. This is the year the customer will be the beneficiary of old and new restaurants offering all kinds of great deals to get you in the door. You will wine and dine and they will be under pressure to make sure you have a great time and come back at least once a month.

• Izzy Kharasch is the founder of Hospitality Works, a consulting firm that has worked with 700+ restaurants and small businesses nationwide. He is offering Daily Herald restaurant owners a free consultation by contacting him at Izzy@HospitalityWorks.com.