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Good to get the No. 1 pick? How top NHL choices have fared over the years

"Nothing is certain but death and taxes."

All blue-blooded Americans know the famous quote from Benjamin Franklin, one from nearly 250 years ago that will never go out of style.

It may seem odd to begin a hockey column that way, but we do so because another near certainty has proved true over the past two decades: When your team owns the No. 1 pick in the draft, a franchise-altering player is about to join the roster.

That's excellent news for the Blackhawks, who won the NHL draft lottery Monday. It means that - barring a strange development - 17-year-old phenom Connor Bedard will be wearing an Indian Head sweater on a stage in Nashville shortly after the first round begins on June 28.

And if history is a guide, he'll be pouring in a head-spinning number of goals in that sweater for 15-20 years.

Let's take a look at how many of the No. 1 picks have fared over the years, starting with 1980 when the NHL held its second modern draft after absorbing four of the defunct WHA teams.

The '80s:

The 1980 draft featured one of the few No. 1 busts over the past 43 years. Montreal selected Doug Wickenheiser, who was an absolute superstar with the junior-level Regina Pats (the same team Bedard played for, by the way). Wickenheiser never adapted to the NHL game, however, and he was traded to St. Louis after four seasons.

Two picks later, the Blackhawks selected a smooth-skating Canadian from Quebec by the name of Denis Savard. And we all know how that worked out.

The rest of the decade featured franchise icons Dale Hawerchuk (to Winnipeg in 1981), Mario Lemieux (to Pittsburgh in 1984), Pierre Turgeon (to Buffalo in 1987), Mike Modano (to Dallas in 1988) and Mats Sundin (to Quebec in 1989) all going No. 1. Those five averaged 570 goals during their illustrious careers.

There was another big miss, however, as the Minnesota North Stars selected Brian Lawton (now an NHL Network studio analyst) at No. 1 overall in 1983. Lawton had a so-so start to his career, but he was out of the league within a decade. Meanwhile, Pat LaFontaine, Steve Yzerman and goalie Tom Barrasso - selected 3, 4 and 5 overall - went on to Hall of Fame careers.

The '90s:

This was a strange decade, with a couple of outstanding picks at No. 1 in Eric Lindros in 1991 and Joe Thornton at 1997. Three teams would love do-overs, however:

• The Quebec Nordiques (now the Avalanche) had Owen Nolan for only five-plus seasons before trading him to San Jose on Oct. 26, 1995. The better pick? That's easy: Jaromir Jagr, who went to Pittsburgh at No. 5.

• In 1993, Ottawa whiffed by taking Alexandre Daigle. He did score 129 goals in 616 games, but defenseman Chris Pronger - who went No. 2 to the Hartford Whalers - was a five-time all-star and named one of the NHL's top 100 greatest players in 2017-18.

• In 1999, the Atlanta Thrashers opted to take Patrik Stefan and passed on Daniel and Henrik Sedin, who both went to Vancouver with the next two selections. Oops.

This century:

Some truly remarkable players have been taken No. 1 during the past two decades. In fact, only Nail Yakupov - chosen by Edmonton in 2012 - is no longer active.

Almost everyone else propelled their franchise to dizzying heights by using not only their God-given talents on the ice but also by emerging as leaders behind the scenes.

This is especially true of Penguins captain Sidney Crosby (2005), the Hawks' Patrick Kane (2007), Lightning captain Steven Stamkos (2008), Leafs captain John Tavares (2009, selected by the Islanders), the Avs' Nathan MacKinnon (2013) and Oilers captain Connor McDavid (2015).

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who helped backstop Pittsburgh to three titles, has always been known as a team-first guy as well.

Then, of course, there's Alex Ovechkin, who ranks second all-time with 822 goals, and Auston Matthews, who has averaged 43 goals in his seven seasons.

Two other recent top picks in Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes (both to the Devils in 2017 and '19) got off to slow starts but are now making huge contributions on an extremely dangerous squad. Hughes' goal totals went from 7 as a rookie to 11 to 26 to 43. Hischier, meanwhile, has 52 goals the last two seasons.

• • •

So who will Connor Bedard remind us of when his career ends, most likely sometime in the 2040s? It's a good question, but some are saying he's a lethal combination of MacKinnon and Ovechkin.

Down the road, we'll see if he possesses the leadership skills of a Crosby or Toews.

If everything goes as planned, Bedard will find himself in the same sentence as Blackhawks legends like Toews, Kane, Stan Mikita, Bobby Hull, Steve Larmer, Denis Savard and Tony Amonte. That potentially means 400-plus goals, 600-plus assists, a Stanley Cup title or two (or three?) during a 20-year career.

Is any of that guaranteed? Of course not.

But it's certainly a good bet.

The Pittsburgh Penguins' Mario Lemieux skates around the ice holding the Stanley Cup after the Penguins won their second consecutive Stanley Cup by beating the Chicago Blackhawks in 1992. Franchise icon Lemieux was picked first by the Penguins in 1984. Associated Press
The Penguins' Sidney Crosby is another generational talent who was chosen first by Pittsburgh in 2005. Associated Press
Tampa Bay Lightning and No. 1 draft pick Steven Stamkos has made an unbelievable impact on the franchise. Associated Press
The Hawks won thre NHL draft lottery Monday, which means - barring a strange development - 17-year-old phenom Connor Bedard will be wearing an Indian Head sweater on a stage in Nashville shortly after the first round begins on June 28. Associated Press
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