The longer the lockout, the greater potential impact on service time/free agency
April 15 is supposed to represent a significant day in Major League Baseball with the 75th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier.
But MLB's current lockout threatens to temper an annual celebration in which all uniformed personnel wears No. 42 in a tribute to Robinson, who played 10 seasons for the Brooklyn Dodgers before passing in 1972.
Barring a mini miracle in the next 10 days, April 15 could represent an ominous date for players - and not just as a reminder to file their taxes in three days.
If the regular season doesn't start before April 15, MLB's entire service time clock could impact a large majority of players with less than six years of service time.
We all remember the fallout of the Cubs promoting Kris Bryant to the major leagues a day after he would have been eligible for a full season of service time and would have been a free agent after the 2020 season instead of waiting an extra year.
In current terms, 172 days of service time constitutes a full season of service time. Under the current calendar, April 14 would be the last day a player could earn 172 days of service time.
The longer the lockout persists, service time will be more scrutinized. In the case of the Cubs, infielder Nico Hoerner might not be eligible for salary arbitration until 2024 if he isn't credited with 158 days of service time this season unless the Super Two designation still exists in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Outfielder Ian Happ needs at least 136 days in 2022 and a full season in 2023 to qualify for free agency in 2024.
The Major League Baseball Players Association undoubtedly will contend that service time in 2022 should be prorated as part of any agreement, but commissioner Rob Manfred has remained steadfast that the games wiped out in April will not be rescheduled.
Service time has been overshadowed by the differences between MLB and the MLBPA over the Competitive Balance Tax, but it hasn't been forgotten by the players who have seen many of their younger and talented colleagues promoted for the first time after the cutoff date for a full year of service time or to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two. It's also fueled the MLBPA's contention that selected teams have taken this route as means of tanking.
Ironically, had the Cubs promoted Bryant sooner in 2015, they might have avoided the logjam of decisions that resulted in Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Bryant being dealt within 24 hours of the July 31 trade deadline - two months prior to their free agency - and started their retooling sooner.
It currently seems like a long shot, but a lengthy lockout could shift the focus to Willson Contreras, who currently needs 64 days of service time to become eligible for free agency in 2023.
Before the lockout, the Cubs acquired veteran Yan Gomes to alleviate Contreras' catching workload while employing him occasionally as a designated hitter.
Providing Contreras with a dependable backup was designed to help his longevity, especially if the two sides could agree on an extension.
These problems aren't nearly as acute with the White Sox, who have been extremely successful in signing their veterans and younger players to long-term deals that provide them with security but buy them out of their arbitration years and their first years of free agency.
For instance, slugger Jose Abreu will be eligible for free agency after this season no matter how long the lockout lasts. Sox legend Paul Konerko nearly left after the 2005 and 2010 seasons, but it would be difficult to see Abreu seriously entertaining offers from other teams because of his allegiance to the Sox.
The Sox hold team options on shortstop Tim Anderson for 2023 and 2024. Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer have guaranteed contracts for multiple seasons with team options attached.
Barring a lockout lasting through June, pitcher Lucas Giolito will be eligible for free agency after 2023. But at the pace of current negotiations, April 15 represents a taxing date for everyone.