Bear Down, Nerd Up: Numbers match the eye test with Dalton, Fields
The Bears locked up their ninth consecutive victory against an AFC North opponent with Sunday's win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
They swept all four AFC North opponents in 2013 and 2017. The 2017 Bears went 5-11 with four wins over AFC North teams. They will try to extend the streak to 10 when they visit Cleveland Sunday.
Coach Matt Nagy extended his September record to 10-3 and the Bears are 68-30-4 in home openers.
The win over the Bengals will be remembered as the first extended look at rookie quarterback Justin Fields in a regular season game.
Tale of two quarterbacks
The NFL is the king of small sample sizes. So forgive me for drawing conclusions through two weeks, but the numbers never lie.
Fields has been significantly more aggressive than Dalton throwing the ball. He is throwing the ball 10.2 yards per pass attempt, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats' “average intended air yards,” which measures the actual distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage. That ranks third among quarterbacks through two weeks (Houston rookie David Mills ranks first).
Dalton ranks last at 4.2 yards per attempt.
There is an obvious caveat. Dalton's Week 1 performance could be skewing the results. He aired out the ball earlier in the Bengals game. If he had played the entire game in that manner, his season average might be significantly higher.
“We capitalized on third down, moved the ball, didn't have any penalties, took advantage of our opportunities,” receiver Allen Robinson said of the opening drive.
Dalton's TD pass to Robinson traveled about 11 yards through the air.
Neither Dalton nor Fields had enough pass attempts to qualify for the Week 2 leader boards on Next Gen Stats, but we know Dalton attempted three passes of 10 yards or more (all completed) on 11 attempts. Fields completed seven passes of 10 yards or more on 13 attempts. Fields attempted four passes of 15 yards or more (completing one), while Dalton attempted one (also completing one).
Just because Fields is throwing the ball deeper than Dalton doesn't mean he's completing more deep passes. He sports a negative 3.8 difference in his average air yard differential (calculated by subtracting the passer's average intended air yards from his average completed air yards). Fields ranks third from the bottom in this metric (Mills also ranks first in this).
Had Robinson caught a deep ball in the fourth quarter, Fields' number probably improves dramatically. That would've added a 35-yard completion to the mix.
Fields scored a 20% “aggressiveness” rating on Next Gen Stats, meaning he throws 20% of his passes into tight coverage (a defender within one yard). That ranks sixth among quarterbacks. Dalton's 16.3% ranks 14th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks.
The Bears have indicated Dalton will start against the Browns if he's healthy.
“We've discussed how things would go, the what-if game, just so that you're not making emotional decisions,” Nagy said.
Stellar defense
Sunday was a nightmare for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He was sacked four times and threw three interceptions.
The Bears haven't picked off one quarterback three times in a game since they picked off Washington's Case Keenum three times in a 31-15 win Sept. 23, 2019. That was also the last time the Bears defense had four or more turnovers in a game (it had five).
Linebacker Roquan Smith's pick six was his first touchdown. The 53-yard return was the first 50-yard-plus interception for a Bears defender since Lance Briggs picked off Dallas quarterback Tony Romo and ran the ball back 74 yards for a touchdown Oct. 1, 2012.
Smith added eight tackles and a sack, in which he surprised the Bengals offensive line and reached Burrow untouched in three seconds. That was the 11th fastest sack in the NFL so far this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
Still kicking
Bears kicker Cairo Santos made two field goals Sunday, extending his streak to 29, dating back to Week 3 of 2020. His last miss in a regular season game was Sept. 27, 2020.
New England Patriots kicker Nick Folk (32 consecutive) and New York Giants kicker Graham Gano (35 consecutive) have long active streaks.
The record is 44 consecutive made field goals set by Adam Vinatieri in 2015 and 2016 with the Indianapolis Colts.