Can Kyle Hendricks continue to survive home run hex?
Over his eight-year big league career, Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has become known as The Professor. And in 2021, batters have studied him well.
Heading into his start Saturday night against St. Louis at Wrigley Field, he has allowed a Major League-leading 17 homers through 68 innings. The homer-every-four-inning pace is 2½ times his career norm entering 2021.
Like another Cub hurler from the past who surrendered plenty of home runs - Hall of Famer Fergie Jenkins - Hendricks is winning more than he's losing. He has ridden a five-game winning streak to get to 7-4.
Throwing home run balls, in and of itself, doesn't spell doom. It's a byproduct of getting the ball over the plate. Five times with the Cubs, Jenkins led the National League in homers given up (including his 1971 Cy Young Award season); twice as a Texas Ranger, he served up the most gopher balls in the American League. Jenkins' 484 home runs allowed is third all-time.
This season, Hendricks' good fortune comes in part because, like Jenkins, he doesn't walk many batters (less than two per nine innings, on par with his career average). Consequently, the vast majority of the homers come with the bags empty.
In a pair of back-to-back wins over the Pirates and Padres, Hendricks gave up 3 runs in each outing - the first via three solo homers, and the second coming on another solo homer and a 2-run home run in the same inning. Combined bases on balls issued in those two games: Zero.
But the bigger factor is luck: the Cubs' offense averages 5½ runs per start, or more than 1 run than it averages for other starters. And the gap is more pronounced in Hendricks' victories, when the Cubs average 7.4 runs. That support has been enough to offset his career-worst 4.59 ERA.
More concerning than the spate of his home run is that batters are hitting .294 against him (vs. the MLB average of .237). As a result, Hendricks' WHIP (walks and hits, combined, per inning) has ballooned to 1.413. He's previously never had a season WHIP as high as 1.2.
The bottom line: Though he's on pace to eclipse his career-high of 16 wins, it is unlikely to happen if he doesn't return to the stellar form that yielded a Major League-best 2.13 ERA that same World Series season.
(Too) early-bird preview of Crosstown Rivalry
Both Chicago baseball teams are in first place, both ballparks will soon be open to full capacity, and thoughts turn to the Crosstown Rivalry.
Since interleague play began 24 years ago (the anniversary of their inaugural contest is June 16), the Sox hold a 63 to 61 Crosstown edge. Look for the South Siders to expand on that advantage this season.
The first series is Aug. 6 to 8 at Wrigley Field, followed three weeks later at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Though both teams enter Saturday's play atop their divisions, their rivalry's resumption won't be a clash of front-runners if current patterns continue.
Cubs starting pitching is ranked 27th out of the 30 rotations in "wins above average" rating (-2.5). Relief pitching, best embodied by closer Craig Kimbrel's resurgence, has saved the team with a MLB-best 3 wins above average.
But Kimbrel won't have a chance to save games if the White Sox have built up a healthy lead in those clashes. It's way too early to make a reliable prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox sweep at least one of the series. I see four wins in the six games for the Pale Hose.
• Matt Baron supplements his baseball brainpower with Retrosheet.org for research.