Bears are underdogs, but are the Saints that much better?
Can the Bears beat the New Orleans Saints Sunday?
Absolutely. That was proved Week 8 at Soldier Field when the Bears played them to a standstill before falling in overtime, 26-23, and a just a handful of plays dictated the outcome of the game.
It is also worth noting the Saints' only victories over winning or .500 teams this year came in their two meetings with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team the Bears also beat. Ten of the Saints' 12 wins came against teams with losing records and two of their losses were to the .500 Raiders and 4-11-1 Eagles.
So why are the Bears 10-point underdogs?
Because at 12-4 the Saints were the second best team in the NFC this year. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, beginning with that clash at Soldier Field, while the Bears have gone 3-7. That win over the Bucs is the Bears' only one over a winning team this season, and the Saints have Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Sean Payton, and the Bears don't.
The Bears are unlikely to prevail in New Orleans, but because they came so close 10 weeks ago, let's take a look at what they did well in that game, where they failed and what they need to do to earn a different outcome.
The Bears actually outgained the Saints 321 yards to 316 yards, had a 3-minute-plus edge in time of possession and held the Saints to 2-of-12 on third down in regulation.
They had one of their better days running the football prior to the revamping of their scheme four weeks ago, rushing for 96 yards on 23 attempts. And while almost no one ever gets to Brees, they had excellent pressure all day and Khalil Mack did sack him once.
What they did not do was take the football away, and particularly costly were two easy interceptions in overtime that were dropped first by Eddie Jackson and then Roquan Smith.
The Bears also suffered several very costly penalties, finishing with seven for 53 yards.
In the end, the difference was in several game-changing situations. The Saints came up with big plays from Brees and Kamara, while in similar situations the Bears came up short.
What is interesting is one of the players that struggled the most in those key moments was quarterback Nick Foles, and it will be Mitch Trubisky under center Sunday.
Following the game Bears coach Matt Nagy was particularly upset by several mental errors and missed communications. He made that abundantly clear following the game.
Foles' numbers weren't awful, but his failures at pivotal moments were crucial.
What may be promising to Bears fans is that what worked against the Saints the first time with the ground game is actually working much better now, and the way they dominated the clock against the Packers last Sunday suggests they may be able to do the same thing again.
We also have to remember there was no Michael Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders on the field Week 8. Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine were and may not be Sunday. And other than two games against the Texans and Vikings, the Bears have not rushed the passer as well as they did against the Saints.
Should the Bears win Sunday it will be one of the biggest playoff upsets in recent seasons, and we know how hard those are to come by.
But when you dig into recent history, and dig a little deeper into the Saints record, it isn't at all hard to believe the Bears can make a game of this one.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush