Hub Arkush: Bears' game against Vikings is close to a must-win
This is clearly the most important game of the season for the Bears and quite possibly of the Ryan Pace-Matt Nagy regime, and if the Vikings are to make it all the way back from their 1-5 start, with a much tougher schedule the rest of the way than the Bears and Packers, it's pretty close to a must-win for them too.
Minnesota has yet to beat a Nagy-coached team; although the finale last year, which the Bears won 21-19, was a bit of a lay down.
If it's a shootout, the Bears have a real problem. But if the Bears D comes to play again, it's the Vikings that could be in trouble.
Matchups to watch
Dalvin Cook vs. Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan and Tashaun Gipson
Cook is the hottest player in the NFL right now with almost 400 yards of total offense and six touchdowns in his last two games. He and Derrick Henry - Cook led Henry by 15 yards for the rushing lead until the Titan put up 103 Thursday night - are easily the two best backs in the league this year, almost 300 yards ahead of anyone else.
The basic formula for Cook is the same as Henry, gap integrity, stop his feet and hats to the ball. But while Henry will run you over, Cook will make you taking proper angles to the ball from Gipson and his fellow defensive backs crucial.
Coaching decision to watch
The Bears have a new playcaller, can Bill Lazor make a difference?
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will take over play-calling duties from Matt Nagy vs. the Vikings and while it's unlikely we'll see a dramatic improvement in the Bears offense unless there is a significant upgrade in the performance of the offensive line, we will still be watching closely to see if Lazor stays with his run game even if it's struggling.
Player(s) to watch
Vikings: Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison. Bears: Ryan Nall, Alex Bars.
The perception around the Vikings is that Cook and Adam Thielen are the only weapons you have to deal with, but the rookie Jefferson, one of two Vikings' first-round picks this season, actually has only three fewer catches than Thielen and he's averaging 5.5 yards more per catch at 18.4 with three TDs.
Obviously Cook is the show, but there is not a ton of drop off when Mattison spells him with three TDs and a 4.7 average on 69 carries.
Nall will most likely have his busiest game as a pro and there have been signs he can produce.
Don't know yet about Cody Whitehair, Jason Spriggs and Sam Mustipher, but it seems likely we'll see Bars either at center or guard and he has the highest ceiling of all the Bears' young offensive linemen.
The X-factor
Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles
Cousins runs as hot and cold as any quarterback in the league and his 15-10 TD-to-interception ratio is certainly not what you want, but his 8.9-yard average per pass is excellent, and when he's on he can challenge any defense.
Foles has been a huge disappointment to date, in large part because of his supporting cast and the beating he is taking, but his biggest issue has been the anticipation of the beating, not the actual pressure. If he stands in and makes a few plays for Lazor we've seen the Bears can play with anyone.
Wild-card player(s) who could surprise
Ifeadi Odenigbo and Riley Ridley
The Vikings have gone from one of the best pass rushing defenses in the league to one of the weakest. Odenigbo is their biggest threat at this point.
On the Bears' side, Ridley got his first 16 snaps of the season in Nashville and made a big contribution snagging both of his targets, including an 18-yard catch on 3rd-and-16 in the third quarter.
It should have earned him an increased role this week.
The final word
Bears 26, Vikings 20
If Cook gets going the Bears will be toast, but in his three games vs. the Bears to date he has gone for 12 and 39 yards rushing in 2018 and last year he had 35 yards before sitting out the finale.
The Vikings offense hasn't matched up all that well with the Bears D to date. This year with the Vikings defense struggling and the Bears desperate in this spot, I'm really puzzled why the Vikings are favored.