Nick Foles or Cam Newton ... did the Bears get it right?
Did the Bears make a mistake by trading a fourth-round draft choice for Nick Foles and guaranteeing him $17 million rather than signing Cam Newton as a free agent who is guaranteed just over $1 million with a max deal of $7.5 million with the Patriots?
No. There is no reason to believe Foles is anything short of 100 percent healthy.
In late March ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Newton had passed a physical coordinated by his agents and the Carolina Panthers, not exactly something one could expect the Bears to bet a season on.
In January 2019 Newton underwent a second surgery on his right throwing shoulder and then played just two games last season.
In December 2019 Newton had a separate surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury to his left foot. According to the American Academy of Family Physicians, "Lisfranc injuries are rare, complex and often misdiagnosed."
Newton's left foot is the plant foot he drives into to throw, and complications in that foot could cause all kinds of issues.
Newton is a great athlete and a great football player, but he is not a great quarterback.
Bill Belichick is the G.O.A.T. because he can adjust any system to fit the talent he has to work with. Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy want a quarterback to fit Nagy's system, and it lives or dies with its quarterback.
While Newton is a former NFL MVP, he is not a quality NFL passer. He has completed 60% of his passes or more just three times in nine seasons, and has a career completion percentage of only 59.6% - practically a non-starter in almost any offense. His career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 182-to-108 is mediocre, and his 2.7% career interception percentage is actually worse than Trubisky's 2.3% and well behind Foles' 2.1%. Newton has thrown more than 24 TD passes in a season just once with 35 in his 2015 MVP campaign in spite of playing at least 14 games every year but 2019. In nine seasons as a starter Newton and the Panthers had just three winning seasons, and he was 3-4 in the playoffs with an 87.7 passer rating.
As the starter in Philadelphia Foles was 8-2 in 2013, 6-2 in 2014, 2-1 in 2017 and 4-1 in 2018 plus 4-2 in the, '13, '17 and '18 playoffs with a 98.8 rating.
The Bears were in search of competition for Trubisky. In addition to uncertainty about Newton's availability due to his health, consider what his former head coach Ron Rivera recently told 670 The SCORE about why he didn't bring him to Washington to compete with Dwayne Haskins.
"We've been in this tough situation because there was a number of veteran guys that we liked, but we have to find out what we have in the young guy. ... But until we get that opportunity to know what we have, it would have been very hard to bring in a guy who's had such a solid career, who was league MVP at one time, and expect the young guy to get chances to grow."
To be clear Rivera spoke very highly of Newton and suggested he believes he is healthy, but the dilemma is still clear.
Foles has spent more of his career as a backup than a starter, so he brings none of the baggage to the competition Newton's success would have. Which brings us to the final point for now.
Foles has been revered as a leader and a teammate by everyone he's played with, while Newton has not.
I am not saying Newton is a bad guy; I have no reason to believe that. But questions about his character including various off-the-field issues have followed him throughout his college and NFL career.
With their hyper focus on "team culture," Newton could have been a difficult fit at Halas Hall.
What of the extra $9.5 million-to-$16 million price tag? Hopefully for the Bears it will be a bargain if it's the difference between a playoff run regardless of whether Trubisky or Foles ends up under center vs. another lost season.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush