An impeachment circus will only help Trump, not defeat him
Consider, for a moment, what the growing talk of impeachment among Democrats sounds like to the tens of millions of people who voted for Donald Trump. Many of them supported him because they feel ignored, mocked and condescended to by the country's urban, educated and cosmopolitan elites -- especially lawyers and journalists. So what happens when their guy gets elected? These same elites pursue a series of maneuvers to try to overturn the results of the 2016 election.
It would massively increase the class resentment that feeds support for Trump. It would turn the topic away from his misdeeds and toward the Democrats' overreach and obsessions. And ultimately, of course, it would fail -- two-thirds of this Republican-controlled Senate would not vote to convict him -- allowing the president to brandish his "acquittal" like a gold medal.
I know, I know, many argue passionately that this is not a political affair but rather a moral and legal one. After reading the Mueller report, they say, Congress has no option but to fulfill its obligation and impeach Trump. But this view misunderstands impeachment entirely. It is by design an inherently political process, not a legal one. That's why the standard used -- "high crimes and misdemeanors" -- is not one used in criminal procedures. And that is why the decision is entrusted to a political body, Congress, not the courts.
In 1970, when he was House minority leader, Gerald Ford provided the most honest definition of an impeachable offense: "whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history." Of the three cases in America's past, history's judgment is that only one -- the impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon -- was wholly justified. Andrew Johnson's decision to fire his secretary of war -- clearly lawful -- should not have led to his impeachment. The same is true for Bill Clinton's failed Whitewater land deal, which triggered an independent counsel inquiry that went into completely unrelated arenas and used questionable methods of investigation.
Harvard Law School's Noah Feldman points out that neither history nor the founders' intent yields clear lessons on the topic. "It's quite possible that many founders would have supported impeachment for serious substantive matters like the usurpation of power by the president. By that standard would [Abraham] Lincoln's suspension of habeas corpus, FDR's internment of the Japanese Americans or [Lyndon] Johnson's massive expansion of the Vietnam War all have been impeachable offenses? Possibly." But these presidents were not impeached, because Congress and the country exercised political judgment. And that is why it is entirely appropriate for Democrats to think this through politically.
For some Democrats, impeachment talk might be a smart, if cynical, short-term calculation. If you are running for the Democratic nomination and languishing in the polls, it is a way to get attention. If you are consolidating your support with the party's base, the more fiercely anti-Trump you are, the better. But all these moves only work as long as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi slow-rolls the process and stops it from getting out of hand. Others can be irresponsible on the assumption that Pelosi will be responsible. But what if things snowball, as they often do in politics?
The Democrats have a much better path in front of them. They should pursue legitimate investigations of Trump, bring in witnesses, and release documentary proof of wrongdoing, providing a national education about the way Trump has operated as president. But they should at the same time show the public that they would be a refreshing contrast to Trump -- substantive, policy-oriented, civil and focused on the country, not on their narrow base. America is tired of the circus of Donald Trump. That doesn't mean they want the circus of the House Democrats.
Trump is vulnerable. With strong economic numbers, he has astonishingly low approval ratings. He will likely run his 2020 campaign on cultural nationalism, as he did the last one. Democrats need to decide what their vision will be. That should be their focus for the next two years, not the unfounded hope that if they pursue impeachment, somehow a series of miracles will take place -- a deeply divided country will coalesce around them and Republicans will finally abandon their president.
The real challenge the Democrats face goes beyond Trump. It is Trumpism -- a right-wing populism that has swelled in the United States over the past decade. Surely the best way to take it on is to combat it ideologically and defeat it electorally. That is the only way to give the Democrats the real prize, which is not Trump's scalp but the power and legitimacy to forge a governing majority.
Fareed Zakaria's email address is email@example.com.
© 2019, Washington Post Writers Group