Counting down to Saturday's big event
Welcome to the week before THE week.
For those still hoping to play football in Week 10, it all comes down to what happens in Week 9. Eyes on Five looks at the possibilities as we gear up for Selection Saturday and the release of the playoff pairings by the IHSA.
1. The good:
Of the 28 football teams in DuPage County, nine have clinched a playoff berth by virtue of having at least six wins. Last week Downers Grove South, Glenbard South, Hinsdale Central, Hinsdale South and St. Francis joined previous clinchers Addison Trail, Glenbard West, Naperville Central and Waubonsie Valley.
While six victories is the guarantee, a slew of five-win teams also will wind up qualifying. They'll do so by having a large number of playoff points, which is a strength-of-schedule number representing the total number of wins by the nine opponents on a team's schedule.
If the past is any indication, there won't be enough available playoff spots for every 5-4 team, at which point the IHSA uses playoff points as a tiebreaker to determine the five-win teams that qualify and the ones that don't. The more playoff points, the better the chance of qualifying.
The use of playoff points is a way for the IHSA to reward teams with tougher schedules. Pairings guru Steve Soucie of the Kankakee Daily Journal pegs this season's points cutoff at 38 points, with the possibility of some 38s not qualifying.
That's great news for current five-win teams like Montini (42 playoff points). Even if the Broncos and every team on their schedule had to forfeit this week - leaving them at 42 points - they'd still qualify.
Benet and Metea Valley are also no-brainers with 39 and 37 points, respectively, while Neuqua Valley and Wheaton Academy appear safe with 35 points heading into Week 9.
There's the good news for DuPage County.
2. The workers:
Many teams still have work to do, but it's doable.
Lake Park is playoff eligible at 5-3, but the Lancers have only 31 points. Even though their maximum point total is 38, that's not likely to happen.
That means Lake Park needs to beat Wheaton North (3-5), which edged the Lancers 17-10 in Week 4, to qualify. A loss probably leaves the Lancers on the outside looking in.
Then there are the 4-4 teams. Westmont (37 points) will be in with a victory at winless Sandwich.
Wheaton Warrenville South (48) has the second-most points in the state among teams still alive for a playoff berth (Brother Rice leads everyone with 52). The Tigers, though, must avenge a 10-7 Week 4 loss to defending Class 8A champion Naperville Central (7-1) to make the field.
Not easy, but there's definite reason for hope with Lake Park, Westmont and WW South.
3. The troubled:
Let's just say Fenton (4-4) and York (4-4) have put themselves in difficult situations.
Playoff points aren't an issue with York - not with 37 heading into this weekend - but the must-win matchup is a major issue. The Dukes, who have dropped their last two games and three of four, must beat unbeaten and state-ranked Glenbard West to qualify.
Fenton's chances to qualify all but disappeared with last week's loss to Wheaton Academy. Even if the Bison beat IC Catholic Prep they're likely eliminated because of their limited 31 playoff points.
Fenton is poised to join already eliminated DuPage County teams Downers Grove North, Glenbard East, Glenbard North, IC Catholic Prep, Lisle, Naperville North, West Chicago, Wheaton North and Willowbrook.
4. In living color:
Like in past seasons, you'll be able to see the pairings broadcast live at 8 p.m. Saturday on Comcast SportsNet when the 256 qualifying teams and the brackets for each of the eight classes will be unveiled to a statewide audience.
Longtime IHSA TV announcer Dave Bernhard, Soucie, veteran state title game sideline reporter Matt Rodewald and CSN prep football analyst "Edgy" Tim O'Halloran will anchor the coverage.
I will be among the media members weighing in on the pairings and, yes, I'll be wearing a suit. So that's news right there.
There will be highlights and interviews with coaches in addition to media analysis. CSN also will dispatch camera crews to playoff pairing parties.
It should be a good time. Tune in if you can!
5. Stat time:
As of last week, 103 teams had clinched a playoff berth. That left 153 of the 256 spots for the rest of the state to grab.
Over the weekend 61 more teams qualified, leaving only 92 openings.
Forty-nine spots have been earned by conference champions, while 31 teams enter this weekend with an opportunity to finish the regular season unbeaten.
Follow Kevin on Twitter @kevin_schmit