Moss can be the centerpiece of your fantasy team
"And with the seventh pick of the 2008 North/South League fantasy football draft, Team Riptide selects ... Randy Moss of the New England Patriots."
It almost seems like blasphemy, but this scenario isn't all that far-fetched as leagues prepare to host their fantasy drafts across the country over the next two weeks. If you own any pick from Nos. 7-12, and Moss hasn't been selected, it's a move you may want to seriously consider.
Again, in some circles this would be considered absurd because you are passing up on serious running back talent such as Clinton Portis, Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch and Maurice Jones-Drew.
But when you stack Moss' projected numbers against those tailbacks, he is likely to surpass most of them.
And if your league awards just 3-4 points for passing touchdowns, it's too early to consider quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Tony Romo. Even if your league awards 5-6 points for a passing TD, Moss may be the better pick because you aren't going to get another WR even close to the potential of 15-plus TDs and 1,500 yards unless you grab Terrell Owens in the second round, which may be too long to wait.
Moss won't approach his amazing 23-TD season of a year ago, but he figures to post at least 14, barring injury. Even double- and triple-teamed, Moss will outjump defenders for the ball.
That's what makes him the most dangerous receiver in the game ... and what can make him a staple of your fantasy team.
The trick will be to fortify your team in the next few rounds with the best running backs available. One strategy would be to grab the best tailback you can in Round 2, then go for a combo package with your Round 4-5 and perhaps Round 6-8 picks.
For instance, take Jamal Lewis, Earnest Graham or Laurence Maroney in Round 2. Then take Tennessee's LenDale White in Round 4-5 and Chris Johnson in Round 6-8; or Carolina's DeAngelo Williams in Round 5-6 and Jonathan Stewart in Round 6-7; or Oakland's Darren McFadden in Round 4-5 and Justin Fargas in Round 7-8. Such combinations should prove a winning formula.
The top 20
If you miss out on Moss or Owens, there is still a rich crop of talent available. Any receiver from the Colts' Reggie Wayne (ranked third) to the Rams' Torry Holt (12th) will do fine as a top fantasy wideout.
And the pool of near can't-miss prospects seems deeper than ever. I'd go as low as No. 20 (Arizona's Anquan Boldin) and feel good about my guy posting nice numbers. Try to grab two of these guys before the pool dries up.
In this top 20, there are a few with risks but still worth their high standings.
• Indy's Marvin Harrison is coming off his worst season, but reports out of Colts camp have been glowing. If I grabbed Harrison, I'd target teammate Anthony Gonzalez in later rounds for insurance.
• Atlanta's Roddy White (83-1,202-6) will fly under the radar in many drafts.
His risk comes in a weak or inexperienced QB throwing to him ... but that was the case last year when he posted solid numbers.
• Green Bay's Greg Jennings (53-920-12) won't duplicate that TD total, but as long as Aaron Rodgers is the real deal, he figures to be a lock for similar yardage and at least 6 TDs.
(Also, don't forget that Carolina's Steve Smith (two games) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (2-3 games) have suspensions to start the season.)
Nos. 21-35
As soon as we hit the Jets' Laveranues Coles on the rankings, I start getting worried. From Coles to Baltimore's Derrick Mason (No. 35), we have a group of receivers who can all post big numbers but can also throw up some duds. In some cases, we don't have enough of a sample size (Dwayne Bowe), and in others we have players who are wildly inconsistent with their TD totals (Nate Burleson, Donald Driver, Chris Chambers and Santana Moss).
When picking these receivers, I'm apt to rank players higher based on their quarterback or offensive system. Coles, Burleson, Ward and Cotchery all have top-10 quarterbacks throwing to them.
Something to consider.
Devin Hester
What a wild card we have here. It's tough to figure what to expect out of the Bears' super-stud return man/who-knows-what-we're-getting-out-of-this-guy wide receiver.
Here's my strategy when it comes to Hester: Don't draft him unless you have two of the top 20 receivers and your league starts 3-4 WRs. In this case, take a chance on Hester in the 11th round or later if you are willing to play him every week regardless of the matchup. Swallow the zero or 1-point games and realize he may win you 2-3 weeks practically on his own.
But, really, he's nothing more than a No. 4 right now on fantasy teams that can't stomach the off weeks.
PPR's
Just a quick word on point per-reception leagues, which seem to be growing in popularity. I am, quite frankly, totally against them. It seems people are dredging up all sorts of ways to add points to their leagues. What's next - points-per-pass-attempt leagues?
I don't see the logic in having a player end up with 10 catches for 20 yards (yes, that unlikely) scoring the same amount of points as someone who has 2 catches for 100 yards. Who was more valuable to his NFL team on game day?
My advice is to stick to yardage and TDs as building blocks for weekly point totals.
The tight ends
The no-brainer top tight end pick of years past - San Diego's Antonio Gates - has a bum wheel. It was threatening to become a major headache for fantasy owners on draft day, but Gates on Sunday said he felt "close to normal." That's encouraging because the last thing a fantasy owner wants is confusion from a potential third-round pick.
After Gates, Dallas' Jason Witten and Cleveland's Kellen Winslow are close - if not right on par with Gates from a production standpoint.
Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez, Washington's Chris Cooley and Indy's Dallas Clark are all not far behind and can be had much later in drafts than the top three.
One big wild card is the Saints' Jeremy Shockey. He could have a huge season with Drew Brees throwing him the ball, but Shockey has yet to eclipse 900 yards or 7 TDs in any season.
• Read more fantasy advice from John at ffmastermind.com and catch him on the Score (WSCR 670-AM) Thursday's with Mike Murphy in the 1 p.m. hour.