NFLPA: Lockout a near certainty

NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith says the chance of a lockout after next season is a "14" on a scale of 1-to-10.

Painting a bleak labor outlook Thursday, Smith said the NFL would receive $5 billion from its network television deals even if no games are played in 2011. He regarded that as proof owners are preparing for a lockout.

"Has any one of the prior deals included $5 billion to not play football?" Smith said, referring to previous collective bargaining agreements that were extended or redone. "The answer's no."

Smith reiterated the union's demand that the NFL's 32 teams open their books and show who is losing money and how much. Citing financial reports by the community-owned Green Bay Packers, Smith wondered how such a small-market franchise can make a $20 million profit while other teams claim they are losing money.

But he noted that the Packers did have a profit decline, which NFL executive vice president and chief counsel Jeff Pash said was 40 percent.

"In most businesses, that would be a serious cause for concern," Pash said. "It would indicate a serious issue that has to be dealt with. You look at your single largest expense, which is player costs."

Smith said the latest NFL offer to the players would reduce their share to 41 percent of applied revenues from about 59 percent. He emphasized that the teams take $1 billion off the top of the estimated $8 billion the league generates.

Pash argued that the $1 billion reflects actual costs incurred, money spent in investments "in things like stadiums, NFL network, NFL.com, putting on games overseas, all of which is intended to and has the effect of generating substantial additional revenues that go to NFL players."

Freeney update: Maybe Dwight Freeney will heal in time to play in Sunday's Super Bowl. The All-Pro defensive end missed another workout Thursday, and has not practiced since tearing a ligament in his right ankle in the AFC title game.

Still, Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell sounded optimistic. Freeney and injured cornerback Jerraud Powers (bruised foot) were both "improving rapidly," the coach said.

Does that mean they'll be ready to play Sunday against New Orleans? Caldwell's not saying.

Earlier in the day, Freeney said he planned to test his ankle today and hoped to do more work on it Saturday.

"I think I'd have to test it first," Freeney said when asked whether he could stand the pain.

Left guard Ryan Lilja also joined the injury list after sitting out with a bad back. Caldwell said he doesn't expect Lilja to miss the game.

Bribery works: Mystery solved. Turns out, there's a reason Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning gets sacked less than any other starter in the league.

A lot of reasons, actually.

"Watches. Suits, custom suits. Stereo systems. Sony Blu-ray players before they even got on the market," Colts left guard Ryan Lilja said Thursday, at the final day of player availability before Indianapolis and New Orleans meet Sunday in the Super Bowl. "He takes care of his guys."

Super prediction: If video games can be believed, here's what the news will be when the Super Bowl is finished: "David Thomas caught an 11-yard touchdown pass from Drew Brees late in the fourth quarter, and the New Orleans Saints won their first Super Bowl by beating the Indianapolis Colts 35-31 on Sunday night."

So sayeth "Madden NFL 10," anyway.

The popular Electronic Arts game, which has accurately predicted the Super Bowl champion in five of the last six years, says Brees will be the MVP.

And EA adds that it correctly simulated the outcomes of the AFC and NFC championship games, within 3 points.