Bears will have to be better to beat Lions again

Yes, it is Thanksgiving, not Groundhog Day, but we did see this same show just 18 days ago when the Bears and Lions got together at Soldier Field.

That one, of course, ended in a 20-13 Bears victory, moving head coach Matt Nagy's record against Lions boss Matt Patricia to 3-0.

But considering Lions starting quarterback and runaway team MVP Matthew Stafford was a surprise scratch just a few hours before kickoff, it was a lot closer than it should have been with Detroit possessing the football with a chance to tie or take the lead with less than two minutes to play.

Since then, the Lions have dropped two more, losing to the Dallas Cowboys at home and in Washington last Sunday, stretching their losing streak to four, and they've now dropped seven of eight after starting the season a promising 2-0-1.

The Bears have split a pair since they saw the Lions, letting one slip away against the Rams in Los Angeles and winning ugly again last Sunday at home over the New York Giants.

Lions offense vs. Bears defense: The hardest part about previewing and predicting these Thursday games is guessing who will be healthy enough to go and how players will react mentally to the quick turnaround.

It seems almost certain Stafford will remain in street clothes, as he has been since the last meeting. And now, further complicating matters, Jeff Driskel - who got his first Lions start against the Bears a couple of weeks ago - pulled a hamstring last Sunday.

Though he did have limited participation in practice early in the week, it was of the walk-through variety and Driskel may well be unavailable.

If he is, the Lions' quarterbacking chores will fall to David Blough, an undrafted rookie free agent out of Purdue originally signed by Cleveland, which traded him to the Lions for a conditional seventh-round pick.

We didn't expect much out of Driskel, and he gave the Bears a run for their money, but with Blough, it would just get that much harder for the Lions. It's worth noting more than a few Bears said during the week they expect Driskel behind center Thursday.

Detroit threw for 257 yards against the Bears because Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay are big-time, big-play receivers, and T.J. Hockenson, though he has slowed since a hot start to his rookie year, is capable of hurting opponents with the right matchup.

The Lions' offensive line did a nice job of protecting Driskel a couple weeks ago, allowing only 2 sacks and limited pressure, but they'll have to do even better this week if Blough sees an NFL field for the first time.

EDGE: Bears

Bears offense vs. Lions defense: Statistically, the Lions' defense is one of the league's most generous in almost every significant category, but in spite of ranking 29th overall, 25th vs. the run, 30th vs. the pass, just 27th sacking quarterbacks and 25th in points allowed, they held the Bears last time to just 226 total yards, 145 passing and 81 on 24 carries for a meager 3.4-yard average on the ground.

The Bears will be without Taylor Gabriel and Ben Braunecker due to concussions, along with Bobby Massie due to a bum right ankle.

Honestly, though, with the recent emergence of Anthony Miller and the likelihood that Riley Ridley could get a jersey for the game, a week or two off for Gabriel could at least allow the Bears a glance at the fourth-round rookie Ridley without giving up too much in production. Also, there isn't a huge drop-off from Massie to Cornelius Lucas.

While Braunecker is the third tight end, with Adam Shaheen and Trey Burton also out, his absence could be the hardest to overcome - especially since Massie can't go - because the Bears have been using Lucas as a second tight end in some running and max-protect situations.

While the stats don't flatter the Lions, guys like Damon "Snacks" Harrison, A'Shawn Robinson, Jarrad Davis and Darius Slay are big-time defenders, and if the O-line allows 5 sacks, as it did last time, the Bears will struggle.

EDGE: Even

Special Teams: The Lions remain Top 10 in all special-teams categories except for their 31st-ranked and struggling punt-return game, while the Bears are the best overall return team in the league with the combo of Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen, and extremely solid returning punts, while struggling to cover kickoffs.

The Lions' Matt Prater has one of the biggest legs in the league indoors, and it'll be interesting to see how Bears counterpart Eddy Pineiro reacts to perfect conditions.

EDGE: Bears

Coaches: The Bears' Matt Nagy is feeling some heat in Chicago from offensive failures, but he was the NFL Coach of the Year as a rookie and his hot seat is nothing like the inferno Patricia is trying to deal with in Detroit. Some of the criticism of Patricia is unfair, as his team was highly competitive until he lost Stafford, but that's why they pay him the big bucks.

EDGE: Bears

• @Hub_Arkush is the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly.

Three keys to today's game

1. If this sounds like a broken record, we're sorry, but the Bears sometime, somewhere have to run the football better, and Ford Field would be the perfect place to get started Thursday. Regardless of whether it's Jeff Driskel or Matt Blough at quarterback for the Lions, if the Bears can put together long clock-eating drives that end in 7 points and not 3, even though the Lions offense will be well-rested, it will be impossible for either of the young QBs to get into any kind of a rhythm when they are forced to throw. If you want to impose your will on the other team, you have to run the ball.

2. As badly as the Bears need to improve their run-blocking, there was absolutely no excuse for them to allow a Lions team that came to Soldier Field in Week 10 with just 14 sacks in eight games to drop Mitch Trubisky five times. That and seven penalties for 57 yards - including several majors on the O-line - would have doomed them against a better opponent. Giving the Lions that many gifts a second time would absolutely be playing with fire.

3. While it may seem a given, the Bears need to be mentally prepared to play 60 minutes with half the preparation they normally get for a regular season game. Thursdays are tough on everybody, and particularly the players, but for whatever reasons, the Lions play really well at home on Thanksgiving. If the Bears don't jump on them early and then keep the pedal to the metal, the Lions will surprise them.

- Hub Arkush