Hub Arkush: With limited draft capital, Bears must look to free agency to improve
It is time for the Bears to turn their full attention to their roster now that Matt Eberflus' staff of assistant coaches is nearing completion.
With the Senior Bowl in the books and the NFL combine still three weeks off, this is the window where they need to do exhaustive self-scouting and prepare for free agency.
Cap information is always sketchy at this time of the year, but it appears the Bears have somewhere between $27 million and $30 million in cap space with 41 players under contract for the 2022 season.
The two most obvious ways for the Bears to create more room without adding future pain could be post-June 1 cuts of defensive tackle Eddie Goldman and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan, which would clear another $10 million to $12 million.
Both would be losses but Goldman - who makes up about $8.5 million of the savings - doesn't appear to be the same guy before he opted out of the 2020 season, and Khyiris Tonga is waiting in the wings.
It's also hard to imagine Trevathan's knees ever allowing him to be the player he was in his 20s.
Somewhere in the vicinity of $35 million to $40 million could make the Bears real players in free agency.
Their first decisions will be how much, if any of it, to spend on 2021 starters such as defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (unknown if he's interested in returning), wide receiver Allen Robinson, offensive tackle Jason Peters, guard James Daniels, defensive tackle Bilal Nichols, inside linebacker Alec Ogletree, safety Tashaun Gipson and punter Patrick O'Donnell.
Their markets will be tempered by the strength of those positions in free agency.
The strongest positions this year appear to be wide receiver, tight end, safety and offensive linemen.
Top wideouts on the market including Robinson are Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Godwin (who suffered a torn ACL late in the season), Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, Will Fuller, JuJu Smith-Schuster and D.J. Chark, to name a few. With Darnell Mooney set as the Bears No. 2 there is also a wealth of potential quality Nos. 3 and 4 receivers to pursue, too.
Adams will struggle to find the dollars his numbers are worth and OBJ's deal won't match his reputation because both will turn 30 late this season. Robinson's disappointing 2021 campaign will keep him from getting anywhere near the Bears' best offer last year.
At tight end, win-now teams will take runs at Zach Ertz (32 years old) and Rob Gronkowski (33), while Mike Gesicki, Maxx Williams, O.J. Howard, David Njoku and Robert Tonyan Jr. should all just be hitting their peaks.
Safety Tyrann Mathieu will turn 30 this season and playing at an All-Pro level. Jesse Bates III, Terrell Edmunds, Jordan Whitehead, Marcus Williams, Xavier Woods, Quandre Diggs, Tracy Walker and Justin Reid are all quality players at least three or more years younger than the 32-year old Gipson, who would be missed.
If new Bears general manager Ryan Poles and Eberflus are all in on Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom at offensive tackle, then one more year for the 40-year old Peters as insurance - as well as a leader and mentor - isn't the craziest idea, but the market will be rife with middle-aged studs at tackle and guard.
There will be a crowd in line around offensive tackles Terron Armstead, Orlando Brown, Cam Robinson, Trent Brown and Eric Fisher along with guards Brandon Scherff, Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner, Mark Glowinski, Austin Corbett and others, while 31-year-old Ryan Jensen may be the only center to get excited about.
Looking at the interior guys, the Bears may be better starting the 25-year-old Daniels, but other teams will see the same thing, and he might get a little pricey.
There is real quality at cornerback in J.C. Jackson, Levi Wallace, Stephon Gilmore, Kyle Fuller, Charvarius Ward, Desmond King and Rasul Douglas, but corners seem to get overpaid more than most positions in free agency and Jackson may be the only difference-maker unless Gilmore or Fuller rediscover some past glories.
Positions you don't want to be needy at this year include quarterback, running back and edge rusher, where the Bears aren't likely to be shopping, and there may not be a better value than Nichols at defensive tackle.
@Hub_Arkush