Cubs second-half storylines to watch, starting with trade deadline priorities

It would be hard to deny that the Chicago Cubs’ first half is anything but a remarkable success. Only two teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers — have a better record than the Cubs’ 57-39 mark. No team has a better run differential than the Cubs at plus-119. According to FanGraphs, they have a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs. The underlying metrics also agree that this is a strong group, as BaseRuns has it as the second-best team in baseball.

All that is to say, it has been a tremendous first three-plus months for this team. But it has a lot more work to do. Anything but a postseason appearance — and after how this first half has gone, an October run as well — would feel underwhelming at this point.

With the Milwaukee Brewers hot on their tails and just a game back at the break, what happens at the trade deadline and in the second half is sure to be critical and eventful. Here’s a look at three storylines to keep an eye on over the final 2 1/2 months of the season.

How big will Jed Hoyer go at the trade deadline?

There is almost no doubt the Cubs will add a starting pitcher. They’ll likely add a reliever as well, and they’ll look to upgrade their bench. But how impactful will the moves be?

The Cubs could add a depth starter along with a no-doubt playoff-caliber starter. They’ll do one at minimum, as Jameson Taillon is out for a little while longer and manager Craig Counsell has gone with bullpen games in two outings to cover his absence so far. That can’t be a sustainable way to go about business for the remainder of the season. There are several names to keep an eye on, and the Cubs are going to be aggressive on this front.

Relievers are so volatile that adding more depth there is a near certainty. But will Hoyer add a big name to the back end of the bullpen? Daniel Palencia has been lights out as a closer with a 1.57 ERA and a strikeout rate approaching 30%. But some more experience, at minimum in a setup role, would be valuable.

Perhaps the biggest question regarding the deadline is how the Cubs will handle their third-base situation. They need to upgrade the bench and find a versatile player who could handle playing every day, should an injury pop up. But despite playing brilliant defense, Matt Shaw has been floundering at the plate, slashing .198/.276/.280 on the season. After looking strong upon his recall from the minors, Shaw has a dismal 1 wRC+ in his last 98 plate appearances.

Adding a player like Willi Castro from the Minnesota Twins would be an upgrade for sure. But if the Arizona Diamondbacks end up selling — the next week or two will be critical for them — adding Eugenio Suárez would take an already daunting lineup and catapult it to another stratosphere.

Can the stars stay healthy and hot?

The Cubs have a deep lineup and a lot of talent. Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch deserve credit for taking their offensive games to another level this season. But stars make all the difference. This Cubs lineup has two, and the reality is that despite how good others on this team are, there’s just no replacing Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong in the middle of the season.

Tucker has been as advertised. Only eight position players in all of baseball have a higher WAR, per FanGraphs, than Tucker’s 3.8. He’s a model of consistency and the type of presence in a lineup that others feed off — he brings the entire group to another level.

How good has Crow-Armstrong been this season? Since 2000, no Cubs center fielder has accumulated more fWAR than Crow-Armstrong’s career mark of 7.3. Yes, he’s already the most productive Cubs center fielder of this century. He’s an elite defender, a top-tier base runner and now one of the best power hitters in the game.

For the Cubs to stay at their current level and make a deep playoff run, they’ll need Tucker and Crow-Armstrong to remain healthy and continue to produce at a high level. They’re allowed to get cold here and there; that’s what the rest of the lineup is for. But stars help make good teams great. That’s the level the Cubs are striving for and where Tucker and Crow-Armstrong can take them.

Can Counsell continue to deliver second-half magic?

Counsell was known for his strong work in the second half while managing the Brewers. From 2018 (when the Brewers ran down the Cubs for the division with a brilliant September) through 2023 and not counting the 60-game 2020 season, Counsell’s Brewers were 12 games above .500 after the All-Star break, on average.

If the Cubs match that mark this year, they’ll win 96 games. If they match last summer’s second-half mark of eight games above .500, they’ll win 94 games. If they’re merely .500, they get to 90 wins. All of which is acceptable. Still, it’s OK to be greedy at this point.

The expectations for Counsell are high. He has done great work this summer, particularly with handling a banged-up rotation and a bullpen that came together quickly after a dreadful first two weeks of the season. Both areas will need more massaging the rest of the way. He’s been aggressive of late with his lineup, too. Dansby Swanson has been moved out of the five spot, Ian Happ is no longer leading off and Shaw didn’t start in the final series before the break.

Counsell has the right balance of being patient and proactive, seemingly knowing when to stick with someone or decide he has waited long enough. The Cubs will need his experience and guidance as the Brewers continue to breathe down their necks and push them for another division title.

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