Imrem: Luck such a big factor in NFL
The Bears will finish the 2014 regular season with an 11-5 record.
Or 5-11.
Or somewhere in between.
Any more questions?
Parity has turned this NFL era into a crapshoot.
Except for maybe Seattle or Denver right now, everyone else's strategy has to be to put yourself in position to get lucky.
You know, like the Bears pretty much did to win the NFC with Rex Grossman at quarterback during the 2006 season.
John Elway should know a little something about this. He won consecutive Super Bowls as the Broncos' quarterback and administered them into the championship game last season.
"It's a tough business," the Houston Chronicle recently quoted Elway as saying, "because it's about winning and staying healthy and you've got to get lucky - believe it or not, you've got to get lucky."
Get lucky by the schedule turning out to be easier than anticipated.
Get lucky by catching the better opponents when they're struggling.
Get lucky by not losing too many key players to injury or suspension.
Get lucky by the wind blowing wobbly kicks and passes in a favorable direction.
NFL teams play a 16-game schedule rather than baseball's 162-game marathon and have less time to recover if the breaks break bad for a few weeks.
No wonder no Super Bowl winner has repeated in a decade and so many Super Bowl losers don't even make it back to the playoffs.
OK, then, how about them Bears?
Snicker at anyone who tells you this mysterious team will have this or that record in 2014. Their guess is only as good as yours,
It used to be that if the Bears were picked to finish 8-8, that meant anywhere from 9-7 to 7-9.
The way the league is now, an 8-8 team might finish anywhere from 11-5 to 5-11 depending on how the luck variables sort themselves out.
So, have the Bears put themselves in position to take advantage of good fortune? What exactly is the starting point from which they can go up or down? Are they playoff contenders or pretenders?
Yes, the Bears are in position to get lucky; their starting point on paper is 9-7; they are playoff contenders until proven to be pretenders rather than pretenders until proven to be contenders.
The Bears are what they were at the start of the exhibition season regardless of how uninspiringly they played in those four games. (Isn't it funny how everybody agrees that the preseason doesn't mean anything and then forms opinions based on it?)
In theory, which is all anyone has to go on at this point, the Bears are better than the 2013 team that had an 8-8 record and missed the playoffs.
In theory, Marc Trestman should be a better NFL head coach during his second season in Chicago. In theory, Jay Cutler should be a better quarterback during his second season in Trestman's offense. In theory, the Bears' defense and special teams should be better because they can't be any worse.
"Should be's" don't win championships, however, so the Bears will have to prove themselves on the field, especially in the division against the Packers.
Here's how precarious prognosticating can be: The Bears are expected to be 1-1 after two games by beating Buffalo and losing at San Francisco, but nothing guarantees that they won't be 1-1 by losing to the Bills and beating the 49ers.
Being an incurable Mr. Sunshine that you know I am, I'm picking the Bears to get lucky, go 11-5 and make the playoffs.
Of course, being the curse that I am, that means they'll be unlucky, go 5-11 and miss the playoffs.