Bears need to get after Favre
Bears coach Lovie Smith likes to break the season down into four-game quarters and compare it to a football game.
By that standard, it's easy to dismiss his team's 1-3 start as just one bad quarter with three quarters left to get back in the game.
But the reality is, if the Bears don't open the second quarter of their season with a victory Sunday night over the Green Bay Packers, this game -- and this season -- are over.
The Bears have never in franchise history started 1-4 and made the playoffs. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only five NFL teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4.
At 1-4, the Bears' best-case scenario is they would be ahead of just two of the 16 NFC teams, only six of which make the postseason. They would be four games behind the Packers and at least two behind the Lions.
But they won't have to worry about that. Despite their disparate records, the Bears are capable of toppling the undefeated Packers, who aren't nearly as impressive as their record.
The four teams they've defeated have a total of 5 victories. With two or three injured defensive starters back, which is possible, the Bears will leave Lambeau Field with a 2-3 record and new life in an NFC that might have one great team at best.
The Bears discovered the perfect formula last week against the Lions: Torment the quarterback with a relentless pass rush. They sacked Jon Kitna five times in the first three quarters and forced him to lose a fumble.
The only problems were that the intense pass-rush pressure subsided in the fourth quarter, and the Bears were outmanned in the back seven because of injuries.
Well, that and Brian Griese's propensity for wasting perfectly good scoring chances with a pair of interceptions and then giving the Lions a touchdown off a third pick. But Griese was understandably rusty with two years between starts and should be sharper Sunday.
Obviously, Packers quarterback Brett Favre is much more adept at escaping the rush than Kitna, and he's having his best season in years. But Favre has a long history of throwing interceptions in bunches when he's hurried, including 47 the previous two seasons with just 38 TD passes. The Bears picked him off three times last season with 5 sacks, and they intercepted Favre six times in 2005 with 4 sacks.
Pressuring Favre should be easier because the Packers have no running game to speak of. They're averaging a league-worst 54 rushing yards per game, about half the NFL average and 20 less than the next-worst team. Brandon Jackson, the Packers' leading rusher, is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry with a long run of 9 yards.
So forget about the run and get after Favre. The longtime Bears nemesis has played more conservatively this season, throwing just 2 interceptions, but he has yet to face a team capable of bringing the heat the way the Bears can.
If there's one thing the Bears have shown the ability to do this season, it's rush the passer. They're tied for the NFL lead with 16 sacks.
Defensive ends Mark Anderson and Adewale Ogunleye were nearly unstoppable for much of the game last week, and linebacker Brian Urlacher has once again become a blitz factor.
With defensive tackle Tommie Harris another week removed from a sprained knee in Week 3, the Bears can have Favre running for his life and tossing the ball up for grabs.
That and Devin Hester should be enough.