Analyze this: Whom to pick after top seven QBs are gone
Fifty touchdown passes and 2 more rushing. Over 4,800 yards. Only 8 interceptions.
That is the almost inconceivable stat line of Mr. Tom Brady, who vaulted many a fantasy team to league titles in 2007.
Now comes the big question: Where should Brady be drafted in fantasy football leagues this year?
As always, there's no clear-cut answer, and much of it has to do with your scoring system.
If QBs receive 6 points per TD, a case can be made to take Brady as early as No. 5. If QBs are only getting 3-4 points per TD, allow an overzealous owner to make the mistake of taking him early. In those scoring systems, even the best QB shouldn't go off the board until the second round.
As we saw with Peyton Manning after his 49-TD season in 2004 and with Dan Marino's 48-TD season in 1984, it's highly unlikely Brady will come close to another season as prolific as last year's. (Manning's next three TD totals were 28-34-35; Marino's were 30-44-27).
Of course, Brady does have Randy Moss at his disposal, so anything's possible.
Just remember this: It's far more important to put two or more quality running backs on your team - especially in this day and age with so many two-back systems - than it is to reach on a quarterback.
Many of the big decisions on draft day will come after the top seven QBs are off the board. If you don't end up with Brady, Manning, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Hasselbeck, whom should you choose?
Good question!
Much of it will probably come down to your gut feeling. But that's also what I'm here for - to make sure your gut doesn't hurt when this decision comes down the pike.
Here's why you may or may not want to make the next dozen signal-callers your No. 1 fantasy quarterback:
• Brett Favre, Jets. There seems plenty of debate as to whether or not Favre can thrive in the Jets' system. He is, admittedly, under the gun in terms of learning a new playbook and forming a bond with his WRs. But Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are two very good wideouts. And let's not forget that with Favre, we are almost certain to get 16 games worth of stats. How many other QBs in this dirty dozen can we say that about? Schedule: Incredibly easy. The only negatives: must play at home against Buffalo in Week 15 in potentially awful weather, and in Week 16 the Jets are at Seattle.
• Derek Anderson, Browns. Anderson was one of the biggest surprises in 2007, totaling 32 touchdowns and 3,787 passing yards. His receiving corps is excellent with Braylon Edwards (80-1,289-16) and Kellen Winslow (82-1,106-5) leading the way. Plus, the Browns added Donte Stallworth. The only question is, can Anderson do it again? He had only 12 TDs over the last nine games of 2007. Schedule: Very hard. The Browns face some tough defenses, and in Weeks 14 and 15, they are at Tennessee and Philadelphia. In Week 16, though, the Browns host Cincinnati.
• Donovan McNabb, Eagles. If only McNabb could stay healthy, he'd be a top-eight QB most years. But McNabb missed two games last season (and most of a third) and 13 combined in 2005-06. He'll probably be overdrafted because of his name, so unless he falls pretty far, I'd stay away. Schedule: After a rough start, the Eagles figure to score plenty from Weeks 5-13. Weather, however, is a concern in the fantasy playoffs: at Giants, vs. Cleveland, at Washington.
• Aaron Rodgers, Packers. OK, I admit it. I may be drinking the Rodgers Kool-Aid. Five other Web sites I searched have Rodgers ranked between 13-18. That's good information because most of your foes will let Rodgers drop to the middle of the draft and - if I'm right and he produces a big year - you'll have a solid quarterback real cheap. Yes, the pressure on Rodgers will be immense. But he has an outstanding receiving corps, a fantastic running back and an organization that's obviously committed to him. Schedule: So-so, but Weeks 12-14 are sweet (at New Orleans, vs. Carolina and vs. Houston). Week 15 at Jacksonville; Week 16 at Bears.
• Marc Bulger, Rams. Because of Bulger's injury history, his TD totals are incredibly erratic (starting with last season they go 11-24-14-21-22). Taking Bulger begs you to take a reliable backup (like Favre?). Schedule: at Arizona in Week 14, then in the Rams' dome against Seattle and San Francisco in Weeks 15 and 16.
• Eli Manning, Giants. Manning is just a very average fantasy quarterback with very little "explosion potential." Taking out Week 17 last season, Manning only had four multiple-TD games. In 2006, he had seven, and in 2005, he had six. Don't expect a Super Bowl ring to change all of that history. Schedule: Bizarre. After an easy first six games, the Giants have it tough after Week 8. One bonus: Carolina comes to New York in Week 16.
• Jon Kitna, Lions. Kitna has been a yardage machine (back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons), but not so much with the touchdowns (18 and 23). But Mike Martz isn't the offensive coordinator anymore, meaning the Lions will run a more balanced offense. Schedule: Nasty, nasty, nasty. The Lions face tough defenses all year and especially in Weeks 14 and 15 (Minnesota, at Indy).
• Philip Rivers, San Diego. Rivers has put together back-to-back 22-TD campaigns. He's not going to light things up with L.T. in the backfield, but he's worth playing in the right matchups. Schedule: A nice opening stretch. Playoffs: Week 14 vs. Oakland; Week 15 at Kansas City; Week 16 at Tampa Bay.
• Jay Cutler, Broncos. It could be a rough year for Cutler, who was diagnosed with diabetes. He's also without the suspended Brandon Marshall for at least the season's first two games. Schedule: Cutler may be a great play from Weeks 9-12 (vs. Miami, at Cleveland, at Atlanta, vs. Oakland). Then more good news: He gets the Chiefs, Panthers and Bills in the fantasy playoffs (although Weeks 14 and 16 are at Mile High).
• Matt Schaub, Texans. Here's a big risk/reward play. Schaub has a high-end wide receiver in Andre Johnson but not much of a running game to keep defenses honest. Schaub averaged 259.7 passing yards the first six weeks of 2007. Over a full season, that would come to 4,155 yards. Who's to say it's not possible? Schedule: A brutal start and a tough matchup in Green Bay in Week 14.
• Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Delhomme was off to a fantastic start last season but only played three games because of an elbow injury. In 2004-05, he had 55 total touchdowns, so he's certainly capable. Will be without Steve Smith for first two games (suspension). Schedule: Pretty average, but a tough playoff slate: vs. Tampa and Denver, then at New York Giants.
Final word: Notice a trend here? Very few of the mediocre quarterbacks have a favorable fantasy playoff schedule. If you miss out on Brady, Manning and Romo, the QB with probably the best playoff slate is Brees. The Saints are at home against Atlanta in Week 14 and at Detroit in Week 16. The one downside? They're at Chicago in Week 15! (Notice, though: Bulger and Rivers both have sweet matchups then).
jdietz@dailyherald.com
• Read more fantasy advice from John at ffmastermind.com and catch him on the Score (WSCR 670-AM) Thursday's with Mike Murphy in the 1 p.m. hour.