Dist. 300 to see steady growth, new study shows

In the most likely scenario, Community Unit District 300 would see moderate but steady growth in student enrollment over the next decade, according to the district's latest enrollment study unveiled Thursday.

While District 300 has grown annually by an average of 400 to 500 students in recent years, the housing slump will reduce annual growth to about 200 to 300 students for the next decade, according to the report by University of North Carolina professor John Kasarda.

The District 300 school board chose Kasarda, a noted demographer, over Ehlers and Associates, the suburban firm that prepared the district's last enrollment study -- even though Kasarda cost about twice as much.

The Ehlers report was criticized when supporters of the 2006 tax hike used the most aggressive scenario in the enrollment study to sell the increase to voters.

When the district's actual enrollment fell short of projections, tax hike supporters blamed the housing slump.

In his presentation to the school board Thursday, Kasarda cautioned district officials against using temporary booms -- or busts -- in the housing market to make decisions.

"There's always cycles. Don't make decisions on cycles. Make decisions on trends," Kasarda said.

Kasarda's study predicts the strongest growth in coming years will be at schools on the district's west side: Gilberts and Gary D. Wright elementary schools, Hampshire Middle School and Hampshire High School.

The report also forecasts slight to moderate growth at east-side schools, some of which are already at or near capacity: Golfview, Parkview and Perry elementary schools and Lakewood School.

Enrollment at most of the district's other schools is expected to be steady or, in some cases, decline.

Kasarda said the district is well positioned to absorb continued growth.

"I think you have adequate capacity," he said. "There may be individual pressure points."

The "pressure points" -- crowded schools on the district's east side -- are a major focus for the district this year.

The east-side study committee will present three long-term proposals to ease the enrollment crunch at Monday's school board meeting.