Keep your eye on these two defenses in Week 1

Well, Week 1 is upon us.

While many fantasy footballers will focus on their offensive players' output, there is another story line that will be interesting to follow for the first few weeks of the season:

How will the Bears and San Diego Chargers defenses fare?

In fantasy rankings going into the opener, these two teams are in everybody's top 10 and in most people's top five. But will they end up there after 16 games?

The Bears looked atrocious in the preseason, and while it's dangerous to judge results when the games don't count, you still figure they'd be able to stop J.T. O'Sullivan and Brady Quinn.

Defensive coordinator Bob Babich's unit finished 28th overall in yards allowed last season. Of course, much of that can be attributed to injuries to Mike Brown, Nathan Vasher, Tommie Harris and even Brian Urlacher.

If they all stay healthy and Devin Hester delivers his magic for a third straight season, the Bears will be worth starting every week.

But consider this: While it's true the Bears finished fifth in fantasy points last year, a big reason behind that was the 3 TDs they scored in the last two weeks. Take those out, and you're looking at a middle-of-the-road unit.

And finally, what if the Bears' offense can't move the ball? Any defense - even a top-notch one - is going to wear down if they're on the field for 35-40 minutes a game. That's especially important in leagues that give bonus points (or take them away) based on points allowed.

In San Diego, we have a defense led by linebackers Shawne Merriman (29.5 sacks last two seasons) and Shaun Phillips (20 sacks last two) and cornerback Antonio Cromartie (10 interceptions in 2007). This is truly a fearsome unit, one that plays in a division without much offensive firepower. Add in the fact that San Diego can control the clock with its vaunted running game, and it doesn't seem like there should be much to worry about.

But unless you've been under a rock for the past month, you know Merriman has elected to forego season-ending knee surgery, and he'll attempt to play through torn knee ligaments. Merriman is obviously the key to this defense, and if he's severely limited or ends up out for the season, San Diego's D figures to struggle.

So, when tracking all that goes on in an NFL weekend, don't forget to keep your eye on these two defenses, whether you own them or not.

If they don't perform up to par, it will be easier for you to plug in your players against them and expect solid numbers.

Good bets

• Steelers RB Willie Parker vs. Houston. Fast Willie will get your team off to a nice start.

• Falcons RB Michael Turner vs. Detroit. Only the Raiders allowed more rushing TDs than Detroit last season. Consider Turner's first game as a feature back a slam-dunk success.

• Chiefs WR Dwyane Bowe vs. New England. This may look like an ugly matchup, but just remember: it only takes 1 score for a successful fantasy day, and Bowe has a great chance to get it in the second half.

• Eagles WR Reggie Brown vs. St. Louis. Brown's been a bit banged up, but he should play and light up a Rams secondary with plenty of holes.

• Cardinals QB Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco. In his only meeting with the Niners last year, Warner threw for - are you ready for this? - 484 yards.

• Raiders RB Darren McFadden vs. Denver. Even if he's sharing carries with Justin Fargas, you've got to believe McFadden will run roughshod over a Broncos defense that couldn't stop your sister last season (2,282 rush yards allowed).

• Indianapolis defense vs. the Bears. Will Lovie Smith's team amass 200 yards of total offense?

Bad bets

• Titans RB LenDale White vs. Jacksonville. Here are White's numbers vs. the Jaguars last season: 18 carries, 66 yards in Game 1; and 8 carries for 12 yards in Game 2. And no scores.

• Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Seattle. Nobody allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Seahawks in 2007 (15).

• Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Buffalo. Owners should take a wait-and-see approach with Hasselbeck until his receiving corps is healthy.

• Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Minnesota. It would be tough to sit your No. 1 or 2 tailback in Week 1, but a lingering hamstring injury combined with a brutal Vikings defense makes it a possibility. (Example: I'm starting the Falcons' Turner over Grant).

• Broncos QB Jay Cutler vs. Oakland. No Brandon Marshall equals no big night for Cutler.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

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