Fantasy market analysis could help in crazy year

For those of you who follow the stock market on a daily basis, you know it's been a crazy year.

The housing market's in the tank, yet the Dow's up 200!

No, wait, oil's spiking and we're down 550 for the week!

The fed's lowering rates, and the Dow is now at an all-time high!

Sell! Buy! Sell, buy! Sell, sell, sell!

I don't know if it's just me, but the start of the fantasy football season seems to be following a similar path.

One week, a player or team looks great; the next, you wonder why he's on your team.

So in this column, I'm playing fantasy football broker (at no charge!), and will attempt to guide your team to fame and fortune.

Or at least a winning record.

Detroit RB Kevin Jones: $3 stock whose stock may be ready to explode. Let's face it: The Lions have almost no running game. Tatum Bell has averaged 27 rushing yards the past three weeks and doesn't seem to be a good fit in Mike Martz's offense. Jones, who was in jeopardy of missing the entire season because of injury, has yet to reach his potential as a fourth-year pro. But if he stays healthy in this offense, he could help a ton of fantasy teams the rest of the way.

Bucs RB Earnest Graham: $1 stock also ready to explode. Regular readers of this space know Graham was in last week's column. Now that Cadillac Williams is out for the season, Graham will split carries with Michael Pittman. But Graham will be the man on the goal line, meaning he could easily score 6-9 TDs the rest of the way.

The entire St. Louis and New Orleans offenses: Former $200 stocks in AOL-like tailspins. We all loved Marc Bulger and Drew Brees on draft day. Same with Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Torry Holt and Marques Colston. Now they're all bankrupting fantasy seasons. We can put a "sell" tag on them, but what are we going to get in return? A kicker or a defense, if we're lucky. If you can get something better, pull the trigger. Otherwise, get some replacements in a hurry because most of these guys aren't going to improve.

Giants defense: $0.50 stock that suddenly discovered a pass rush (and invented the Internet, apparently). Two weeks ago, the Giants couldn't stop a flag football team. Then, after holding the Redskins at bay, they sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times last week. Go figure. Give them another week or two -- if the trend continues, feel free to pick up the Giants … and be worried when your players face this unit.

Packers QB Brett Favre: Blue-chip company that was in the dumps, but new employees making it viable again. Favre never really went away. His team just did. Now he's surrounded by an incredible defense and a great group of receivers and tight ends. The 37-year-old wonder boy has 8 TD passes with 999 yards the past three games. He's become a viable fantasy starter once again.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb: Speculative stock that figures to continue its wild swings. After getting burned by McNabb in the opening two weeks, his owners figured they'd be OK after a 4-touchdown, 381-yard day against the Lions. But then came last week when the Eagles managed a whopping 3 points against -- of all teams -- the Giants. McNabb's a tough one to figure the rest of the way, but I think you've got to keep playing him for a while and hope for the best.

Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown: Stock soaring. Where did this guy come from? The last two weeks, he has 246 rushing yards, 172 receiving and 4 TDs. That's vaulted him to No. 1 status in fantasy points among running backs in many leagues. Congrats if you own him.

Ravens and Bears defenses: Stocks plummeting. The Bears can improve their value if they get their core players back quickly. And, of course, they do still have Devin Hester. But it's Baltimore that's been the real disappointment. Through four games, the Ravens have just 6 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. Worse still, they're allowing 22.5 points per game. It's still a unit to play, but when your players face the Ravens, you don't have to be as worried about a really bad matchup.

My teams: Despite a 30-point explosion by Tony Romo, the rest of my unit-league team decided to take day-long siestas and fell to 3-1 after a 72-50 loss. In the regular league, I scored the most points among the 10 teams thanks to big days by Matt Hasselbeck, Joseph Addai and Santonio Holmes. I won that game 129-81 and improved to 3-1.

Good bets

• Packers QB Brett Favre vs. the Bears. Seventh among QBs in fantasy points -- and tied for second since Week 2 -- Favre has once again become an appealing option. He figures to have a field day against a franchise he seems to get a kick out of torturing.

• Redskins RB Clinton Portis vs. Detroit. If Portis (knee) doesn't play, just plug Ladell Betts' name in this good bet. The Lions can be had on the ground or through the air, but the Redskins are much better at pounding it out.

• Cardinals RB Edgerrin James vs. St. Louis. After running the ball just 31 times for 134 yards the past two weeks, James figures to go wild against a Rams defense that has allowed the Niners' Frank Gore and the Bucs' Earnest Graham to run for 2 TDs each.

• Browns QB Derek Anderson and WR Braylon Edwards vs. New England. Cleveland is going to fall behind. Way behind. And Anderson will throw, throw and throw some more.

• Texans RB Ahman Green vs. Miami. Boy, have the Dolphins gotten old in a hurry. This team can't stop anybody, as evidenced by the nearly 200 yards a game they are giving up on the ground.

• Panthers QB David Carr vs. New Orleans. Sleeper alert. Against a woeful Saints secondary, Carr will hit Steve Smith over and over … and over again.

• Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Dallas. Ever think Lee Evans would be a super-sleeper? That's pretty sad, but I say he has a big game at home on Monday Night Football.

Bad Bets

• Bears RB Cedric Benson vs. Green Bay. The Packers are one of two teams (Minnesota is the other) that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

• Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander and QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Pittsburgh. Full disclosure: I hope I'm dead wrong with this prediction because I'm starting both of these guys in two separate leagues. But the Steelers are tough, and I'll take any points I can get.

• Steelers QB Ben Roetlisberger vs. Seattle. This game just reeks of a 13-10 final. The Seahawks have allowed just 2 passing TDs -- and that includes a game against Carson Palmer and the Bengals. This defense is good.

• Rams WRs Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett vs. Arizona. Bruce (hamstring) may not even play, so watch that. But even if he does, most Rams are risky plays until further notice.

• Chargers QB Philip Rivers and WR Vincent Jackson vs. Denver. No quarterback has thrown for over 200 yards against the Broncos so far. Of course, three of them were J.P. Losman, Luke McCown and David Garrard (the other was Peyton Manning). Expect the Chargers' struggles to continue.

• Bills RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Dallas. The rookie will have a tough time of it against a tough Cowboys' defense.