Can Smith survive loss to Packers?

Circle Dec. 13 on your calendars, all you Lovie Smith critics.

That's the day the odds could shift from the Bears' head coach being back next season to him being blown away by a bitter lakefront wind and bitter home crowd.

Right now the McCaskey family is reluctant to swallow the $11 million invested in Smith over the next two seasons.

Meanwhile, general manager Jerry Angelo is reluctant to surrender the faith he invested in Smith the past six seasons.

However, their inclinations could change when the Packers come to Soldier Field next month.

If the Bears don't demonstrate marked improvement by then - on the field, in the playoff race, in the hearts and minds of Chicagoans - history screams that Smith will be more vulnerable than ever.

"We're an average team right now," he said at his Monday media session, "with the potential to do great things in the second half (of the season)."

Wrong, coach. Average? The Bears were average a month ago despite a decent 3-1 record. Now they're an indecent team despite an average 4-4 record.

"We're better than that," Smith said of Sunday's embarrassing loss to Arizona.

Sorry, that's just more distortion. The Bears aren't better than that. They're awful verging on awfully awful.

Now, fast-forward to the Sunday afternoon of Dec. 13.

For the sake of discussion, let's say the Bears don't get any better in the standings or on the field before that next Packers game.

Then let's say more fans in Soldier Field wear green and gold than orange and blue, and even worse, thousands of empty seats wear neither.

Finally let's say more cheer the Packers and more boo the Bears, while more points are on the board for the Packers and more frustration is in the air for the Bears.

Remember, Smith came to town expressing how important it is to beat Green Bay. Back then he knew how to pander to local emotions and understood it was in his best interest to do so.

Anyway, if the Packers beat the Bears on Dec. 13, not even the McCaskeys could ignore the pall descending upon Soldier Field. Not even if in their minds and wallets they don't want to fire Smith.

If memory serves, a similar Soldier Field scene during a Bears-Packers game in December of 1998 punched Dave Wannstedt's ticket out of town as much as a second consecutive 4-12 record did.

Something like 7-9 this year could be the new 4-12. If the Bears miss the playoffs a third straight season and are embarrassed at home during a Packers game, you'll hear, "Good - bye - Lovie!" - "Good - bye - Lovie! - "

The chants would be, or at least should be, too much for anybody associated with the Bears to simply respond with a "Wait 'til next year."

In their final seasons before being fired as Bears head coaches, Wannstedt, Dick Jauron and Neill Armstrong each went 0-2 against the Packers. Mike Ditka was 1-1 but lost 17-3 at home late in 1992.

So reality could override reluctance at Halas Hall if Lovie Smith goes 0-2 against Green Bay this season.

Especially if it's punctuated by a convincing Dec. 13 loss before a hostile home crowd.

mimrem@dailyherald.com

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