For fantasy fanatics, hope springs eternal

Finally, it's here.

The opening week of the NFL is upon us. And for fantasy football fanatics everywhere, we are pumped to see how the teams we drafted will perform.

Everybody's undefeated. We're all going to win Week 1. We're all going to the playoffs. Everybody's got a Super Bowl winning team.

It's funny how, for the most part, optimism is high for fantasy owners at this time of year. By Week 3, that may all change, but now you look up and down almost any roster in your league and think, "This guy's got great running backs. But check out this guy who has Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Maurice Jones-Drew (actually a team in one of my leagues because Jones-Drew was a keeper). That team is stacked!"

I like to write up projections for one of the leagues I'm in, and it's always funny to read them after the year is over. Sometimes, stuff is spot on. Other times, I'll accuse a team of falling asleep during the draft and predict they'll go 4-9 only to see them reach the title game.

That's the beauty of it all right now - we really don't know what is going to unfold.

So before we dive into Week 1, I just want to offer some advice that should be helpful as we begin to navigate the 2009 NFL season.

1. Trust the players you drafted. By this I mean that in the first 2-3 weeks, start the players who were ranked higher on your draft boards. Don't go starting the fifth WR you took over the second one just because a head-to-head matchup looks either intriguing or daunting. Trust yourself. Trust your guys.

2. Don't flip-flop. This is the toughest thing to do, and even I am guilty of succumbing to this urge. It killed me last year as I outthought myself 3-4 times with my stable of running backs and lost a couple of games due to my brain cramps.

For the most part - and I stress FOR THE MOST PART - stick with your Week 1 starters until at least Week 3. Moving players in and out of the lineup is the best way to miss a guy's breakout week right after he had a 2-catch, 28-yard day. You'll start your bench player who went 8-109-1, he'll go 2-28 the next week and your starter will post huge numbers. Save yourself the headaches and try to stick to your guns.

3. Act fast. The draft was a big part of how you'll do this season. But players who aren't even on our radar right now (a la Eddie Royal last year) will spring up in Week 1, 4, even 10 and can drastically change your fortunes. We will do our best to identify the best of the best before your league-mates find out about them. And you'll find out things fastest by signing up for our Web site - fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com.

Good bets

• Packers WR Donald Driver vs. the Bears. With CB Charles Tillman iffy, and the Bears secondary likely to give up big plays all over the place, watch for Driver to get open quite often in the middle of the field. Driver had two so-so games against the Bears last year (4-for-60, 4-for-63), but I'm guessing he has a 6-catch, 85-yard, 1-TD performance in prime time.

• Saints RB Mike Bell. If Pierre Thomas doesn't play - and it's looking very questionable - Bell will step in and have a field day against the league's worst run defense from 2008.

Bad bets

• Bears WR Devin Hester at Green Bay. There's always the chance Hester gets behind the secondary and hauls in an 80-yard TD, but he really struggled last season against the Packers. How bad was it? Try 3 catches for 19 yards in two games.

• Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe at Baltimore. I smell a 24-0 final here. Let's see, the Ravens were second in the NFL last season with 180 pass yards allowed per game; Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is banged up; and the game is in Baltimore. It's tough to sit Bowe, so if you must play him, just temper your expectations.

• Redskins RB Clinton Portis at New York Giants. Combine the fact that Ladell Betts is taking over on third downs with how good the Giants defense is and you'll see why I think Portis struggles here. Last season, Portis went 23-for-84 and 11-for-22 against the G-men with zero TDs.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

• For John's complete list of Good Bets and Bad Bets, go to fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com and sign up for the Daily Herald's new Web site.