Schmit: A two-win playoff football team? What will that look like?
Something doesn’t feel right.
We’re two weeks from the start of the IHSA football playoffs, and the great unknown lingers. It’s been there for decades, but this time it’s different.
The expansion of the playoff field — from 32 to 48 teams in each of the eight classes — makes everything different. We’re starting a week earlier than usual because of the extra 128 qualifiers, and the top 16 teams in each class get a first-round bye.
But the difference is bigger than that. What, exactly, are we to make of the expanded field?
It doesn’t matter to the top seeds and perennial powers who never struggled to claim the five victories traditionally needed to qualify in the past. Even with the expansion, they don’t have to play the extra playoff game.
But to the teams that haven’t sniffed the postseason in years, this is a whole new ballgame. You only have four wins? You’re in. Three wins? Join the party. Two wins? Well, we may be able to find you a seat at the table.
A two-win playoff qualifier … think about that. It won’t be clear how many will be in the field until the regular season ends next Saturday, but more than a few will sneak through to Week 10.
In past years, one or two wins at this point of the season meant closing strong and moving on to the offseason. Now, theoretically, every team still has a shot at the playoffs, even if they’re 0-7 but find a way to win their last two games.
The shot might be slim — not every 2-7 team will qualify — but the shot stunningly exists.
Expansion will create ugly first-round games, although blowouts are nothing new to the opening rounds of the football playoffs. A two-win qualifier is a far cry from 2023 when Nazareth got in at 4-5 and became the first and only five-loss champion in IHSA history.
What to expect from a two-win playoff team? It depends on the strength of schedule, the health and — perhaps most important — the collective mindset of each respective team.
You have to wonder how many two-win teams even want to be in the postseason. My guess is it’ll be a mix of eagerness for a chance in the second season, with a smattering of teams that have been battered around enough for nine weeks. They’re done with the 2026 campaign.
The Chicago Catholic League is known for chewing up decent teams, so Carmel and Benet (both 2-5), if they stick at two wins and qualify, may be eager for a chance against teams from other conferences. St. Viator (1-6) closes with Fenwick (4-3) and De La Salle (0-7). Could the Lions close with a spark and take momentum into Week 10?
Elk Grove, Lake Park, Metea Valley, Rolling Meadows and Stevenson are among the two-win area teams. Many others sit within striking distance with one win or no wins.
My guess is they’d each like the energy boost of a playoff game. If nothing else, it’s an extra week of practice — of being together — with a chance to call up freshmen and sophomores to start working on next season.
Again, two wins won’t automatically get you in, even with 384 qualifiers. The 2-7 teams that do get in will have a large number of playoff points (a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker representing the total number of victories by your opponents).
Regardless, the fact we’re even talking about two-win playoff teams is pretty remarkable.