Will an NFL Draft lacking in marquee talent push Ashton Jeanty, Tyler Warren into top 10?

Teams picking near the top of the NFL Draft next week will be facing a tricky dilemma.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren are widely viewed as two of the 10 best overall prospects in the class, but neither … all together now … plays a premium position.

No, this is not a unique debate. For a while now, NFL teams have prioritized investments at quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher and cornerback, particularly early in the draft, while generally weighing other positions on a supply versus demand basis.

But there’s a twist with this class. This group isn’t teeming with top-level talent. And because there are fewer marquee prospects than usual, especially with a dip outside the top five, teams leaning in the direction of selecting the best player available might have no choice but to take Jeanty and Warren.

“It’s a year-by-year and market-driven evaluation,” said one executive, who, like the other sources in this story, was granted anonymity so they could speak openly about the draft. “In a year with average high-round depth at premium positions, just take the best player. All I know is every time I watched (Jeanty and Warren) specifically, they were the best players on the field.”

There are, of course, valid arguments on both sides. Supporters of disregarding positional value err toward the uniquely talented prospects, hoping they can be difference-makers despite playing non-premium positions. The hope, of course, is that a player will hit his prime by the time the team is ready to contend; the Las Vegas Raiders can only hope they don’t waste tight end Brock Bowers’ rookie contract. Others will point toward a team like the 2023 Detroit Lions, who used an “extra” first-round pick on star running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and argue a team on the rise with few holes should stack the roster with standout talent regardless of position.

Critics, however, still believe the best way to build a team is by targeting talent at premium spots. They can provide greater cap savings down the line and aren’t as reliant on their surroundings to be effective — i.e., a great running back will never shed his training wheels without an effective offensive line.

But let’s make one thing clear, according to some of the evaluators: If Jeanty is drafted high, as expected, it’ll be because of his exceptional talent, not the narrative of a running back resurgence.

“Jeanty is a top-five talent in this draft,” a second executive said. “If you believe he is truly a difference-maker and a threat on every down, run or pass, you can justify taking him. Most running backs don’t fall into that category. They have to be difference-makers like Saquon (Barkley) to justify (such a high pick).”

The diminishing value of running backs’ contracts has come into focus in recent years, with the likes of Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs cashing in last season after corralling solid value in free agency. But they also went to teams with franchise quarterbacks, strong offensive lines, good coaches and enough of a supporting cast to flourish. They are still largely viewed as the exceptions.

But just how valuable is an elite running back on a roster with too many holes? Barkley, for example, played in just two playoff games in six seasons on some deeply flawed New York Giants teams. With the Philadelphia Eagles and their powerhouse offensive line, however, he became the first player with two 60-yard touchdown runs in a postseason game and helped lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl.

The Atlanta Falcons offer another case study. Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 pick in 2023, is universally viewed among the most talented handful of backs in the league, but his arrival in Atlanta has yet to translate into postseason success. Tight end Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 pick in 2021, was widely viewed as a generational talent, but that selection hasn’t worked out, either, as the Falcons’ playoff drought extended to seven seasons last year.

Meanwhile, 18 tight ends have been taken in the top 10 since Hall of Famer Mike Ditka in 1961, including just two over the past decade. Before Pitts, there was T.J. Hockenson, who is an excellent player, but the Lions still traded him — to a division rival, no less — largely because they weren’t prepared to pay his second contract.

“I wouldn’t take either (position) in the top 10,” a general manager said. “When is the last time a top-10 tight end really had a great career? And then you’ve got to pay them their second contract at the top of the market.”

To that GM’s point, the vast majority of tight ends taken in the first round — let alone the top 10 — haven’t had “really great careers.” There have been some good ones, but rarely has a difference-maker been found in the first round over the past 25 drafts.

Running back evaluations are particularly finicky, as teams are becoming increasingly adept at finding value in all seven rounds. Look at the 2017 draft, for instance. Christian McCaffrey (No. 8 pick) has been the best back in the league for a chunk of his career, but there were productive players in later rounds, too: Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook (second), Alvin Kamara and James Conner (third), Jamaal Williams (fourth) and Aaron Jones (fifth). All were selected after Leonard Fournette (No. 4).

Has McCaffrey been the best of that group? Probably. But poll enough coaches and executives, and they’d generally be split on whether they’d rather have McCaffrey at No. 8 versus Kamara in the third round.

That’ll be part of the equation next week, too. The Athletic’s lead draft analyst, Dane Brugler, ranked Jeanty as his No. 3 prospect, but Brugler has nine running backs ranked in his top 100. Warren is Brugler’s No. 8 prospect, with Michigan’s Colston Loveland (No. 11) right behind. Brugler has seven tight ends in the top 100.

Teams can’t be paralyzed by value, though. With new regimes at the helm of the Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, sure, it’s nice to plan on getting an impact player in the top 10 before filling a need with a running back or tight end later. But there’s also an important element in knowing they got a rock-solid prospect like Jeanty or Warren with their first pick.

There’s something to be said for being a little extra cautious. After all, good players are good players, and it’s important to accumulate as many of them as possible.

“Skill players who touch the ball and impact the game should all be viewed the same,” another coach said. “Positional value in football should be just like basketball. They don’t slot basketball players (in the draft) based on what position they play. They base their pay scale on who impacts the game.”

It’s a rare draft class without an abundance of elite prospects at premium positions, so teams will have to get creative early in the first round. And though taking a running back or tight end might not always be the most popular decision or lead to the highest return on investment, there shouldn’t be as much buyer’s remorse this year with players the caliber of Jeanty and Warren.

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