Here's why 2023 season is crucial for Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields

The Bears are trying to build something.

Not a stadium in the suburbs, although they are trying to do that, but a football roster that can compete for the playoffs. The hope is this year's team will be improved over last season's 3-14 finish, but anyone booking Super Bowl tickets is far too premature.

General manager Ryan Poles made it clear that he wants to build his team in a smart, analytical way. He's not simply throwing money at problems. The Bears are taking the time to do a proper rebuild, even if Poles never used that word publicly.

But in the fast-paced world of the NFL, the clock is always ticking.

Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus have a decision looming with their most important player: quarterback Justin Fields. Following the 2023 season, the Bears will have to decide whether to exercise the fifth-year option on Fields' rookie contract. First-round draft picks sign four-year contracts, with a fifth-year team option that must be picked up or declined following year three.

Fields is currently under contract through 2024, but the Bears will need to decide if they want to tack on another season in 2025. But the discussion doesn't really end there. If Fields plays well in 2023, the discussion surrounding a potential long-term extension - the type of mega-contracts that Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson just signed - could begin immediately.

It's vitally important that the Bears figure out just how good Fields is in 2023. It's arguably more important than wins and losses.

Fields had a tremendous, record-setting season as a runner in 2022. He ran for 1,143 yards and 8 touchdowns, coming just shy of the single-season QB rushing record. But the Bears' passing game was statistically the NFL's worst in more than a decade. Fields threw for 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was woefully lacking in playmakers around him, particularly late in the year when receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool missed time due to injury.

"I just try not to make excuses," Fields said during OTAs this spring. "I feel like I said this multiple times last year: No matter what the situation is, I'm going to go out there on the field and play my hardest for my teammates, for my coaches."

After the season, Poles said he didn't regret not adding more weapons at receiver. Ultimately, 2022 was about cleaning house of expensive veterans and acquiring future draft capital.

"We used the resources that we had to the best of our ability based on what was there," Poles said after the season ended. "I think that's kind of what I go back to in terms of making sound decisions. Like, that's hard. I wish there was a perfect scenario where you could just clean up everything and get good."

With it being the first year under a new coaching staff, plus the lack of weapons, last season was - in many ways - like year one for Fields. His rookie season in 2021 under coach Matt Nagy was essentially wasted.

The Bears are hoping for a big leap in year two with Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. That's why Poles felt such an urgency to add weapons. Trading for Claypool at the trade deadline last fall was acknowledgment that they needed better receivers. Including DJ Moore in the trade for the No. 1 overall pick was further proof.

Poles has improved the weapons around Fields. He improved the offensive line through free agency and the draft. The time is now for Fields to show what he can do.

The good, the bad and the ... average

The QB market is going to take another step forward in terms of dollar value. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert are next in line for extensions. Both QBs, drafted in 2020, had their fifth-year options picked up by their teams. Both are candidates to sign extensions prior to the 2023 season. Both are likely to join the exclusive $50 million-per-year club, which currently includes only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers.

After this season, the conversation will begin for the 2021 draft class, which included five first-round picks: Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones.

Brad Spielberger, a salary cap analyst at Pro Football Focus and contributor to OverTheCap.com, said it seems likely the Bears will exercise the fifth-year option on Fields' deal unless he has a truly poor season.

"I would be very surprised if he does not get that fifth-year option picked up," Spielberger said. "I think the bigger question is does that become a placeholder for a multiyear deal or does he actually play the fourth season and then go into that fifth year kind of like Lamar Jackson last offseason."

Jackson played out the fifth and final year of his rookie deal in 2022 with no extension in place. Doing so runs the risk of injury with no financial guarantees beyond the season.

A total of 16 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round from 2015-19. Ten of them had the fifth-year option exercised by the team that drafted them. It sometimes makes sense for a team to use the option, whether it plans to keep the QB long-term or not. A QB has to be pretty underwhelming for the team to completely give up on him after three seasons.

"It's never a great scenario to have maybe $25 million fully guaranteed on the books, but I think (Fields has) shown enough and has enough talent that you're probably not super worried there," Spielberger said.

In that recent five-year span, Daniel Jones was the only QB to have his fifth-year option declined who still went on to sign an extension with the team that drafted him. Jones signed a four-year, $160 million this offseason after leading the Giants to the playoffs in 2022.

If Fields has a Jalen Hurts-like rise in 2023, where he goes from promising young talent to definitive star, the money - big money - will follow. Those discussions would likely begin next offseason. By clearing the books of veteran contracts like Khalil Mack's, Poles has already set the Bears up well to be able to handle a monster contract in the future.

The more challenging outcome is what if it's not definitive? What if Fields' season is simply average?

The Bears have two first-round draft picks next spring thanks to the trade with Carolina for the No. 1 pick. If they wanted to draft another young quarterback, they have the ammunition to trade up.

"You can show growth, and obviously he has grown gradually over time, but growth is not linear," Spielberger said. "You can really take these exponential steps and, frankly, we've seen with Josh Allen getting Stefon Diggs or Hurts getting A.J. Brown. Can DJ Moore be that guy?"

Ultimately, what Fields does or doesn't do on the field in 2023 is going to dictate where this story goes.