Sports bettors 'are very pro-Bears,' bullish on Fields' MVP odds ahead of 2023 season
The Bears appear to be one of the darling teams in the eyes of sports bettors.
Since the odds opened on Super Bowl LVIII, the Bears have gone from 100-1 to 50-1 to win the Super Bowl. According to Adam Pullen, Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading, bettors saw a lot of value in the Bears early on.
"They're one of our biggest Super Bowl liabilities at this point," Pullen said. "(Bettors are) very pro-Bears as we stand right now."
Those pro-Bears vibes have been strong with the additions that general manager Ryan Poles made to the team over the offseason. The excitement of Justin Fields' 2022 season has people paying attention to the Bears.
With a regular season win total set at over/under 7.5, Caesars is seeing a lot of action on the over. Same goes with whether the Bears make the playoffs.
"Sometimes you get one of those teams in the offseason that people are very gung-ho about and the Bears fit the bill this offseason," Pullen said.
It's a weird time in the NFC North. The Detroit Lions are currently the betting favorite to win the division at +120, thanks in large part to their 8-2 finish to the 2022 season. The Vikings are +300, the Bears are +400 and the Packers are +420 at Caesars, as of Thursday.
With former Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers leaving in a trade with the New York Jets, it appears that the NFC North is wide open. Nobody knows what to expect from Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who will step into the starting role for the first time since the Packers selected him with a first-round draft pick in 2020.
"If you've been away for a while, you'll see that the Packers are the team with the highest odds to win the division," Pullen said. "You might do a double take. You see the Lions as favorites. It's definitely odd."
In each of the past two seasons, a team has come seemingly out of nowhere to reach the Super Bowl. Two years ago, it was Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Last season, it was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
Despite the popularity with bettors, the Bears are not likely to have that big of a turnaround. The biggest one-year turnaround for a Super Bowl champion was the 1999 Rams, who won only four games the year prior.
Fields is currently +2500 at Caesars in the MVP odds, tied with Dak Prescott for 10th overall. The expected names - Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen - are the favorites.
Pullen said Fields is one of Caesars' biggest liabilities in MVP betting, much like the Bears are for the Super Bowl. Bettors seem to like the potential return on investment if Fields does have a Jalen Hurts-like jump this season.
"It's reflective of how the team does," Pullen said. "If Justin Fields gets the Bears to the playoffs, that's certainly going to elevate his chances of winning the MVP. Obviously, he's got to put up the numbers, but it's relative to team success."
At the same time, Pullen said Caesars is seeing more action on the under with Fields' total rushing yards for the season (currently at over/under 875.5 yards) and the under on total passing touchdowns (currently at over/under 18.5 touchdowns), but those props generally receive much less action than MVP. Fields' rushing yards prop opened at over/under 927 yards, so it has dropped considerably. That could be an indication that sharks and more sophisticated bettors are zigging when the general public zags with regards to Fields.
Certainly the Bears have talked about running Fields less than last season, when he totaled 1,143 rushing yards. He finished the 2022 season with 17 touchdown passes and 2,242 passing yards.
Pullen said he expects NFL betting to increase from the general public as training camps open later this month. The season begins Sept. 7 with a prime-time matchup between the Lions and the Chiefs.