Believe it: If enough goes right, here's why Bears squad could surprise

The Buffalo Bills believe they are finally going to win a Super Bowl this season.

The Rams believe they'll repeat.

Tom Brady believes he'll lead the Bucs to a title then retire - for good this time.

The Chiefs, Packers, Chargers, Niners, Broncos, Ravens and Bengals all believe their time is now.

As for the Bears?

Heck, even a few of their players dared to utter "Super Bowl" over the past couple of weeks.

That's the beautiful thing about this time of year: Nearly every NFL team believes it can meet, exceed or - in the Bears' case - far exceed expectations.

Most pundits have the Bears winning between 4-7 games.

Just don't tell that to anyone at Halas Hall.

"Everyone says (it's) a restart," said defensive coordinator Alan Williams. "Everyone says young. Everyone says, 'Hey, not ready to contend.'

"We just don't see it that way. We just don't."

Instead, the Bears see a path to success - and a path to the playoffs.

Is it sheer lunacy?

Perhaps, but give first-year GM Ryan Poles and first-year head coach Matt Eberflus credit for changing the culture of a franchise that's been mired in mediocrity for well over a decade.

Poles has completely reshaped the roster to the point where only 19 players remain from last season's 6-11 squad. All of that new blood has injected the Bears with fresh enthusiasm and fresh hope.

"It's probably the ... (biggest) transition since I've been in the league," said RB David Montgomery. "It's actually impressive to see how many different people from different places can come together in a short period time and create this bond.

"You know, it's rare. We're gonna have a rare season."

It begins with a noon kickoff Sunday at Soldier Field against quarterback Trey Lance, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers.

Even if the Bears don't prevail, a strong performance would show there's a chance they may surprise.

After a tough Week 2 matchup at Green Bay, the Bears have a chance to beat the Texans, Giants, Commanders, Patriots, Dolphins, Lions, Falcons and Jets. Over the first 12 weeks only games against the Vikings and Cowboys seem like sure losses.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

A whole lot must go right for Eberflus' squad to be at 8-4, 7-5 or even 6-6 entering a Week 13 matchup against the Packers on December 4.

In order of importance, here are five areas where the Bears must excel:

• Defense, defense, defense. The Bears allowed the sixth-fewest yards in 2021 and held seven opponents to 17 or fewer points. Yet, Matt Nagy's squad finished 6-11 in large part because the defense forced just 16 turnovers.

Robert Quinn, Trevis Gipson and Roquan Smith must do their jobs in order to make life easier on rookie defensive backs Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. Safety Eddie Jackson, who doesn't have an interception since 2019, must step up as well.

Eleven of 12 teams that amassed 25 or more turnovers last season finished with a winning record, so Williams ought to create a massive sign in the defensive room that reads: 25 TURNOVERS OR BUST.

• The run game. The offensive line must open holes for David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. Do this and it gives Justin Fields all kinds of options in the passing game. Let's see Montgomery rush for 1,300 yards and Herbert add another 300-400.

• No dumb turnovers. Every good quarterback plays sound situational football. That means not forcing a throw on third-and-5 at the opponent's 15 in a game where you lead 13-7. Yes, a TD would be nice, but a field goal puts you up by two scores. Same goes for when you're backed up. Better to punt than to make a risky throw deep in your own territory. If Fields understands all of this, it bodes well for his future - and the team's.

• Play mistake-free ball (or as close as you can get). This means no after-the-whistle penalties and very few false starts. Other infractions are going to occur, but it's the dumb ones that this team must avoid.

• Flourish in final two minutes of the half and down the stretch. How will Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy perform during the game's most critical moments?

The best coaches maximize every second in the most critical moments. Bill Belichick will burn you if he gets the ball back with 15 seconds left, but he also knows how to milk the clock so his opponent can't get that momentum-turning field goal before the half.

It's actually quite fun to watch if you're a true fan.

"Somebody once said that those situations are like snowflakes; they're all different," Eberflus said. "Time, timeouts, score ... field position. It's important that we keep educating ourselves so that we do a good job on game day."

So there you have it.

If the Bears pull all of that off, a 9-8 or, heck, even a 10-7 season isn't out of the question.

If they can't? Well, then 4-7 wins seems about right.

Either way, it ought to be a fascinating season. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.

Bears schedule

Date Opponent, time

Sunday San Francisco, noon

Sept. 18 at Green Bay, 7:20 p.m.

Sept. 25 Houston, noon

Oct. 2 at NY Giants, noon

Oct. 9 at Minnesota, noon

Oct. 13 Washington, 7:20 p.m.

Oct. 24 at New Eng., 7:15 p.m.

Oct. 30 at Dallas, noon

Nov. 6 Miami, noon

Nov. 13 Detroit, noon

Nov. 20 at Atlanta, noon

Nov. 27 at NY Jets, noon

Dec. 4 Packers, noon

Dec. 11 BYE WEEK

Dec. 18 Eagles, noon

Dec. 24 Bills, noon

Jan. 1 at Detroit, noon

Jan. 8 Vikings, TBD