There's no way to know yet, but Bears '21 schedule looks daunting
You're about to hear repeatedly over the coming weeks and months that the Bears have the third-toughest schedule in the league.
Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't.
It is calculated in what is really the only way we have right now to measure it: the combined won-lost records of this year's opponents from last season, how many of them were above .500 and how many were in the playoffs.
The 149-122-1 (.550) combined records of the Bears' 2021 opponents, along with eight games against 2020 playoff clubs and 10 against teams .500 or better, is certainly daunting. Or it would be if it had any practical real-world meaning.
In 2020, the Rams were 10-6 vs. 9-7 the year before or +1, Cincinnati +2 wins, Cleveland +5, Lions +2, Las Vegas +1, Green Bay flat, Tampa Bay +4, San Francisco -7, Pittsburgh +4, Baltimore -3, Arizona +3.5, Minnesota -3, Seattle +1 and New York Giants +2.
What we do know for sure is one off-season is a lifetime in today's NFL. Few teams remain as good or bad from one season to the next, and last year's record more often than not is meaningless by Week 3 or 4.
The Packers are the only team on the schedule that was the same club last year as the season before, at least as measured by wins and losses.
The Browns, Bucs, 49ers, Steelers, Ravens, Cardinals and Vikings all had significant swings of three games or more in one direction or the other.
Almost every team in the league going into last season dreaded seeing the Patriots, who finished -5, Houston (-6) and Philadelphia (-4.5) but may have welcomed them by the time they showed up. And teams looking forward to playing Buffalo (+3), Miami (+5), Indianapolis (+4) and Washington (+4) were a lot less cocky when kickoff rolled around.
Right now, I could easily see the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Vikings and Giants all being significantly better this year, I won't be at all surprised if the Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks do some obvious moonwalking, and imagine if Green Bay and Seattle show up without Aaron Rodgers and/or Russell Wilson under center?
The schedule looks tough, but we've known that since January, when we knew whom each team would play and whether they'd be at home or on the road. All we learned Wednesday is the order they'll come in.
What do we actually know about this slate?
For now it looks like the first half should be a lot tougher than the second half.
We've known for a while the Bears will host clubs with a combined 60-67-1 record and only the Packers and Ravens were 2020 playoff clubs, while their road opponents were 89-55 and the Rams, Browns, Bucs, Steelers, Packers and Seahawks were playoff teams.
Yes, some of those clubs could slip, but when we look at the pedigrees of the Packers, Rams, Seahawks and Steelers, there is no question the Bears' road schedule is dramatically more difficult than the home slate and could prove to be punitive.
Now we know what order they're lined up in.
This season will be the first time in their 100-plus year history the Bears will not play consecutive games at home or on the road. It's hard to say how much if at all that matters, but it is unique.
The trip to Tampa on Oct. 24 shouldn't be a radical climate change, but five of six December or January games are outdoors in northern cities with only the Cardinals on Dec. 5 being out of their element.
The Week 10 bye comes at near the perfect time as opposed to early when you don't yet need a rest, or later when it could already be too late.
Lastly, and this is back to the world of conjecture, I'm hard-pressed to find a six-game losing streak on this slate.
The toughest stretch looks like Weeks 5 through 11: at Las Vegas, Packers, at Tampa, 49ers, at Pittsburgh, bye and then the Ravens. But if the Bears' defense is back and quarterback Andy Dalton isn't a disaster, they'll win at least one and two. Even three doesn't feel unreasonable.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush