Hub Arkush: Can next edition of Bears defense be elite again?
There are opinions and there are facts. One fact is that defense and running games still win NFL championships.
A quick glance at the last three Super Bowls featuring Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes makes that clear.
It is pretty obvious that the Bucs' and Patriots' defenses were the difference in Super Bowl 53 when the Patriots beat the Rams, 13-3, and last month in 55 when the Bucs beat the Chiefs, 31-9. And it was awfully helpful that New England outrushed Los Angeles, 154-62, and Tampa outrushed the Chiefs, 145-107.
In Super Bowl 54, through the first 48:03 of the game the 49ers defense had dominated with San Francisco outgaining the Chiefs, 302-222, and taking the ball away twice for a 20-10 lead, but Kansas City's defense buckled down over the last 11:57, holding the 49ers to 49 yards on 18 plays with an interception and a sack on their last four possessions allowing them to run off 21 unanswered points.
While the San Francisco defense just buckled letting K.C. run up 190 yards on 19 carries, the Chiefs sealed their championship win with a 38-yard Damien Williams TD.
None of that is to say the Bears wouldn't be well served to acquire a franchise quarterback.
Of course they would.
But current realities in the NFL argue strongly their best chance of winning just the second Super Bowl in franchise history rest with the defense returning to its 2018 elite status.
The question of the hour: while many suggest it is a defense in decline, is it?
As of this writing there have been no cap casualties except Buster Skrine.
Its core - Akiem Hicks (31 years old), Khalil Mack (30), Robert Quinn (31), Roquan Smith (24), Danny Trevathan (31), Kyle Fuller (29) and Eddie Jackson (27) - with the exception of Smith and Jackson - is middle aged in NFL terms, and if healthy they all should be able to play at their peaks.
Eddie Goldman (27), Bilal Nichols (25) and Jaylon Johnson (22) are still ascending and each has flashed at least a bit of star power.
It is still more a young-to-middle-aged group than middle age or old, so while definitely not guaranteed, special is still an option.
Hicks has not stayed healthy the last two seasons, and how Goldman returns from a season away will be a big question. Along with Nichols, they are the only three D-linemen currently on the roster.
This could be a trouble spot, or if the three starters are healthy all year and the team can re-sign two of Roy Robertson-Harris (highly unlikely), Mario Edwards Jr., Brent Urban and John Jenkins, or find replacement-level options, it could be one of the best groups in the league.
Mack and Smith are returning Second-Team All Pros, and Trevathan played some of his best football as a Bear the final third of last season.
Quinn wasn't as bad as his 2 total sacks suggest, but he was a big disappointment based on his cap-choking contract.
Barkevious Mingo played well last year but is a free agent. Trevis Gipson was drafted to develop behind Quinn and Mingo but is still an unknown, and there is no depth behind Smith and Trevathan.
Again, maybe the best linebacker group in the NFL. Maybe a trouble spot depending on Quinn and adding depth.
In the secondary, Fuller is one of the top six or seven cornerbacks in the game. Johnson showed flashes of start power, Kindle Vildor appears ready for more minutes, and Jackson was the best free safety in the game until last season when he was a gigantic disappointment.
Tashaun Gipson, Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson are all free agents, so the Bears have to find a safety to start next to Jackson.
Bottom lines: If new defensive coordinator Sean Desai can rekindle the flames in Jackson and Quinn, and Ryan Pace can keep Tashaun Gipson or find a like replacement, the defense can be elite again.
But it only happens with no more losses, adding depth at all three levels, great luck with the injury gods, and Quinn and Jackson finding whatever it is they lost last season.
If they do all that, and significantly upgrade the quarterback position, go ahead and start the party.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush