Hub Arkush's Bears-Bucs preview: Bucs have Brady, but what exactly do Bears have?
By HUB ARKUSH
Shaw Media
When the Chicago Bears face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday night at Soldier Field each of these 3-1 clubs will come in with a "quality loss" and three shaky wins.
A little deeper dive though reveals while the Colts are probably a better team right now than the Saints team that handled the Bucs in the season opener, Tampa has beat teams with a combined 3-9 record. The Bears victims are 1-11, and while not significantly tested, the Bucs have clearly played better football over the first four games than the Bears have.
And of course Tampa has the G.O.A.T. under center while the Bears QB's have played like a couple of goats, thus the Bears are big home team underdog.
But that doesn't account for the potential of the Bears defense.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Bucs linebacker Shaquil Barrett vs. Bears left tackle Charles Leno
Barrett was the best pass rusher in the NFL last season with 19½ sacks and six forced fumbles and he's red hot again with three sacks in the last two games. On the other hand Leno has struggled all season and last week played the role of welcome mat to Justin Houston.
This is where the Bears could lose a lot with the statuesque Foles in the pocket as opposed to the athlete Trubisky if Leno can't at least play Barrett to a draw.
COACHING DECISION TO WATCH
Will Matt Nagy stick with his run game?
Montgomery was drafted as the prototype back for Nagy's offense; a zone read runner and good receiver out of the backfield. But Nagy was quick to abandon the ground game last week when it struggled vs. the Colts and he's refused to feature Montgomery getting him just 15 ½ touches per game.
The Bucs come in second in the league against the run but if Nagy doesn't stick with it regardless of how successful it is he'll green light the Bucs pass rush to tee off and pass protection has been the weakest part of Bears offensive line's game.
PLAYER(S) TO WATCH
Bucs inside linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White
David is the NFC's Defensive Player of the Month for September, the rookie White was the fifth player taken in this year's Draft and is Tampa's leading tackler and together they are the key to the Bucs vastly improved defense.
Both are undersized Roquan Smith clones body wise that run like the wind, make plays from sideline to sideline and can cover running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Nagy's and Bill Lazor's game plan will have to be built to neutralize them if the offense is going to take a step forward.
THE X-FACTOR
Tampa's Injury List
For the fifth week in a row the Bears will catch a break with Bucs tight end O.J. Howard on I.R., No. 2 receiver Chris Godwin out, No. 1 and No. 3 receivers, Mike Evans and Scotty Miller questionable and No. 4 receiver Justin Watson out.
These Thursday night injury lists are notoriously unreliable because of the short week but even if Evans and Miller are good to go, and Brady will have Gronk, - who's been a shadow of himself so far - LeSean McCoy is out and Leonard Fournette is doubtful so Tom Brady will be without a lot of his weapons.
WILD-CARD PLAYER(S) WHO COULD SURPRISE
Anthony Miller, Jimmy Graham and Lamar Miller
Allen Robinson is going to get his regardless but beyond him the Bears simply haven't demonstrated any consistent weapons. If Anthony Miller and Graham are going to make a difference this season Nagy has to turn them loose Thursday night, and while Lamar Miller was still on the practice squad at this writing that's obviously not why he was brought to Chicago. Right or wrong the coaches obviously don't trust Ryan Nall and Miller is a better bet than Artavis Pierce to make a difference if he still can.
KEY STATS
Bears 7th (20.3) points allowed, Bucs 8th (23.0)
Bucs 8th (30.0) points scored, Bears 25th (21.3)
1st 3 Quarters Bucs avg. 23.5 Pt.'s/Game, Bears avg. 8.5 Pt.'s/Game
If the Bears are down more than one score to these guys at the half it's probably over.
THE FINAL WORD
Bucs 27, Bears 24
The Bears defense has yet to play its best game but hasn't played badly, has improved each week and may be catching Bucs at exactly the right time. But there is nothing we've seen on the field to suggest the Bears offense is ready to turn the corner against this Bucs' defense, and then of course there's Brady.
The Bears will be game but probably not quite good enough.