Bears, Colts both have something to prove

At 3-0, the Bears are one of only seven undefeated teams in the league. Indianapolis, after a stunning opening-day upset loss in Jacksonville in which they also lost their top offensive threat, running back Marlon Mack for the season (Achilles), has bounced back nicely with convincing thrashings of the Vikings and Jets behind the NFL's top-rated defense.

But the truth is the Bears have looked like a special football team for approximately a quarter and a half Week 1 in Detroit and again Week 3 vs. the Falcons, but they should probably be 1-2. We really have no idea how good they are.

The same goes for the Colts, whose impressive numbers at least leave some room for doubt as they've been piled them up against teams with a combined 1-8 record, the same as the Bears first three opponents.

One of these teams has a chance to make a statement Sunday, making it a huge game for both clubs.

Matchup to watch

Colts Quenton Nelson vs. Bears Roy Robertson-Harris and Bilal Nichols

Nelson is without question the best offensive guard in football today. He may be the best offensive lineman period. It would be a gas to see him and Akiem Hicks go at each other all afternoon long.

But Hicks usually spends more time on the other side of the Bears defensive front, so while we're sure they'll say hi a few times, it's more likely that how Robertson-Harris and Nichols hold up against Nelson will go a long way toward dictating how the Bears shaky run defense stacks up against a team that would love to run the ball all day long even without Mack.

Coaching decision to watch

Will Matt Nagy or Frank Reich forget their run game first?

The popular belief is that Nick Foles stepping in under center will open up new avenues for Nagy to toy with the more exotic elements of his passing game that he enjoys so much and the temptation to put aside his much improved run game will be great.

Even with the loss of Mack, Reich has a solid offensive rookie of the year candidate in Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor, but since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, Reich, like Nagy, a former QB himself, has had nothing resembling Philip Rivers to experiment with.

The Colts come in with a 56-44% pass-to-run ration, while the Bears are 59-41%.

These teams are built to live and die with their defenses, and the team that runs the ball better and controls the clock keeping their defenses rested will probably win this game.

Players to watch

OLB's Darius Leonard, Justin Houston and DT DeForest Buckner

Leonard may be the best four-down linebacker in the game today in just his third season, a first team All Pro as a rookie, and the trade for Buckner after his Super Bowl spin with the 49ers last February to pair with veteran Justin Houston has made the middle of the Colts defense wicked, as well as giving the Colts one of the league's best pass rushes early in the season.

These three are the Colts version of Khalil Mack, Hicks and Robert Quinn.

The X-factor

Nyheim Hines

Hines is the Colts version of Tarik Cohen with even more elite speed, and while all eyes will be on Rivers, T.Y. Hilton and Taylor, Hines is a threat to make a game-changing play every time he touches the ball.

Wild-card players

Bears RBs David Montgomery and Artavis Pierce

Montgomery has been threatening to take over a game each of the first three weeks of the season and this could be the week he gets his chance to do it with Cohen now lost for the season.

Equally interesting though is Pierce likely to see his first NFL action, and no one including Nagy and Ryan Pace really knows what to expect.

I'm guessing we'll get a look.

Key stats

Colts 'D' 1ST Points Allowed, 1ST YD.'s Allowed (225.3), 1ST vs. Pass, 4TH vs. Run

The numbers are real and the talent that's built them is too, but it is also true that the Jaguars, Vikings and Jets that they were compiled against are currently among the NFL's dregs.

How much better over 60 minutes, if at all does, Foles make the Bears?

The final word

Bears 24, Colts 23

To be completely honest I leaned toward the Colts all week long, but I kept getting haunted by the belief the Bears are definitely better than they've played so far this year, on both sides of the ball.

In the end I couldn't escape the feeling the Bears defense is due to have a day ... and then I tossed a coin.