Constable: Coronavirus bad, but it could be a lot worse, expert on the plague says
Italy is on lockdown. Chicago canceled the St. Patrick's Day parades. And your 401(k) threw up your retirement savings again while riding that Wall Street roller-coaster.
As bad as it seems, the spread of the COVID-19 virus is no plague. In looking for a plague expert to back me up, I find "Pandemic Disease in the Medieval World: Rethinking the Black Death," by Carol Symes, associate chair of the University of Illinois' history department, and Monica H. Green, a fellow of the Medieval Academy, and award-winning author of dozens of books and academic articles on the plague and the history of medicine.
"You're absolutely right: COVID-19 is nothing like the plague in its severity," Green emails from the United Kingdom, where she is giving a series of lectures on the history of plague. "Plague would likely have killed between 50% and 100% of those it infected (depending on the mode of transmission). Those case-fatality rates are simply unimaginable to us."
Most medical experts place the COVID-19 case-fatality rate at between 2% and 3%, and one presidential hunch places it below 1%. Still, those warnings about how COVID-19 probably will just kill older adults and people with chronic health conditions are no comfort to older adults, people with chronic health conditions, and the people who love them.
"That's still a terrible burden for any society to bear," Green says.
But there's another danger with COVID-19.
"What COVID-19 breeds very well is fear," Green says. "And that can be more destructive to community coherence and long-term trust than absolute number of deaths."
If you are hoarding hand sanitizer and toilet paper because you are afraid you might get sick, you are not embracing that old American tradition of coming together for the betterment of society.
Another difference between Black Death and COVID-19 is speed.
"Plague likely took 100 to 140 years from its initial point of origin until it reached western Europe," Green says, adding that she hopes to publish soon about how it was not always widely apparent that it was being transmitted. "Still, by the point it reached the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, there were clearly merchants' reports conveying news of its progress ahead of the outbreaks themselves. One can only imagine the fear induced upon hearing of mass mortalities in other parts of Europe, and then having to sit and wait for months in anxious anticipation."
In today's world, we don't have to wait for COVID-19 as every arrival is heralded in news reports and social media posts.
"Although I'm sure many people are anxious about the coronavirus now, news of new cases and fatalities is also regularly being accompanied by scientific news about modes of transmission (so that we can do something to protect ourselves) and disease intervals (time from infection to symptoms, and then time to recovery) so we have a pretty good idea of what to expect," Green says.
While 14th Century residents could face the Black Death without being bombarded by tweets, "our lives in an 'accelerated' mode now" does have advantages, Green says. The virus can spread around the globe quicker, but so can solid medical advice. "I am impressed by how quickly scientific information is being circulated and being processed," Green says. "The fact that the hashtag #FlattenTheCurve has become widely used is phenomenal."
A GIF of #FlattenTheCurve shows how slowing the spread of the virus keeps it from overwhelming health care facilities.
"The speed of the disease is matched (or perhaps even exceeded) by the speed of our communications. And that is what gives me hope," Green says. "Unlike every other pandemic (plague, cholera, even the 1918 Flu Pandemic), we now have the science working as fast as the microorganism itself."
But you don't have to be a scientist to take on COVID-19.
"So let me be clear: this is a pandemic. We need global coordination. And we need compassion and generosity," concludes Green. "For my course, 'The Global History of Health,' I open with a quote from Mary Fisher, who spoke at the 1992 Republican Convention: 'HIV asks only one thing of those it attacks. Are you human?' Our common humanity is what makes us vulnerable. And it will be our common humanity that pulls us through this newest crisis."