Dietz's thoughts on the Blackhawks' future, Kubalik and the goalie situation
Which way is the Blackhawks' arrow pointing as we look ahead to the next 1-3 years?
Up, down or sideways?
It's a question I posed after GM Stan Bowman got a modest return at the trade deadline last week when he shipped Erik Gustafsson to Calgary and Robin Lehner to Vegas.
In my opinion, that arrow is pointing sideways — with perhaps a slight edge in the upward direction.
But as currently constructed, the Hawks don't figure to be much more than an 78-88 point team.
The reasons are fairly simple:
• There are still too many young players that are learning how to win.
• While this is happening, the Hawks' oldest — and most expensive — players will soon see their effectiveness wane.
• Whereas you see the Blues and Stars clog up the defensive zone and wear teams down with a big, physical defensemen, the Hawks have none of that outside of Connor Murphy.
• The salary cap continues to be a serious issue, likely preventing any significant moves in the near future.
Add it all up and the Hawks appear to be a fringe playoff team in 2021, '22 and '23. If everything goes right — meaning Andrew Shaw and Calvin de Haan come back and play to their potential, the goalie situation is solved, the veterans don't experience a significant drop-off and players like Adam Boqvist, Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalik continue to make strides, then the playoffs are possible.
If not, expect more of the same.
So that's one of the points I wanted to make as the Hawks come home off a 2-2-0 road trip.
Here are a couple other things to keep an eye on as we enter the final month of the regular season:
Show him the $$$:
On January 9, I went on Twitter and said the Hawks ought to sign Dominik Kubalik to a three-year, $10 million extension. I then added: “And if I'm an another team's GM, I'm offer sheeting him a deal like that if the Hawks don't lock him up.”
(Anything under a $4.22 million annual average valuation would only cost a team a second-round pick.)
I took some heat over my proposal, with some saying that Kubalik's 43 games weren't a big enough sample size. Well, since that tweet, Kubalik has an incredible 15 goals in 20 games.
This young man is no fluke. That shot is no fluke. His ice awareness is no fluke.
He's also fast as hell and competes like a bulldog.
He's worth every penny, and every shot that goes past a goaltender is costing Stan Bowman more and more money.
It will be fascinating to see what happens with the negotiations because 30-35 goal scorers are awfully expensive. I'm still thinking a three-year deal makes sense, but if I'm Kubalik I'm probably trying to get about $12 million to $13 million.
If all else fails — and Kubalik feels he's being lowballed — he can go to arbitration. Last season six players were awarded a contract by an arbitrator, with five being one-year deals.
Goal oriented:
If the Blackhawks believe they have a chance to make the playoffs then Corey Crawford should be in net almost every game the rest of the way.
If it becomes clear, however, that the postseason is all but a pipe dream then coach Jeremy Colliton ought to give Malcolm Subban and Colin Delia about three starts each.
The Hawks already know what they have in Crawford, so it would behoove them to see how Subban and Delia look as they look toward next season and beyond.
Subban (.890, 3.13) will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this off-season, while Delia (15-12-1, .910, 2.74 in Rockford) carries a $1 million cap hit until 2021-22.