Hub Arkush: If defense shows up, Bears should have no trouble vs. Eagles
If the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town Sunday were the same team that beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII last February in Minneapolis, the Bears could have some very serious problems on their hands.
But apparently what's being lost in the pregame buildup to this wild-card battle is that these Eagles are nowhere near as good as last year's version.
That is not to say Philly isn't more than capable of knocking the Bears off ... they absolutely are.
Still, the facts are that over the past 17 weeks, the Bears have been better than these Eagles, but they have not been as good as last year's Super Bowl champs.
This Eagles team will be starting its fifth and sixth cornerbacks, third and fourth running backs, and though the offensive line is likely to be intact, its three best players battled injuries during the regular season.
Conversely, the Bears have been one of the healthiest teams in the league and are likely to have all hands on deck with the possible exception of backup outside linebacker Aaron Lynch.
Much has been made of the Eagles' late-season run to the playoffs, winning five of their last six games - including hard-fought wins over the Rams in L.A. and a two-point escape over the Texans at home. But compared to Chicago winning nine of its last 10 - including the demolitions of the Rams and Vikings - which club has been more impressive?
Compare rosters and the Eagles gain an edge at quarterback, tight end and on the offensive line.
The Bears get the nod at running back and wide receiver, and a big edge at linebacker, along with a huge nod in the secondary.
The defensive lines are even, and special teams are probably even overall, although Chicago kid Jake Elliott makes the Eagles a lot more comfortable with their kicking game than the Bears are with Cody Parkey.
Statistically, the Eagles' offense just doesn't match up with the Bears defense. Philly is 14th in total offense, while the Bears defense is 3rd. The Eagles are just 28th running the ball, compared to the Bears' run 'D,' which is No. 1 in the league. And though the Eagles are 7th throwing the ball and 10th in average gain per pass, the Bears are 7th stopping the pass and the best in the league in average gain allowed through the air.
Most importantly, the Eagles are just 18th in the NFL in scoring points, and the Bears have allowed the fewest points of any team in the league.
When you flip it around, the matchups are closer.
The Bears are 21st in total offense to the Eagles' 23rd-ranked 'D;' 11th rushing while the Eagles are 7th stopping it; and the Bears are just 21st throwing the football, but the Philly defense is 30th defending the pass.
The Bears are 9th in points scored - which is skewed by 6 TDs from the defense - and the Eagles are 12th in points allowed.
Both teams are very good on third down on both sides of the ball.
Nick Foles has played really well at quarterback for the Eagles the past three weeks, but in reality not better than Carson Wentz. The Eagles have just won more with Foles, and of course he has proven the postseason is where he shines the brightest.
Mitch Trubisky has had a good second year, playing some of his best football in recent weeks, but how he will react to the bright lights of the playoffs is an unknown.
Philadelphia will win this football game if its offensive line can neutralize the intense pressure of the Bears' front seven, and its beleaguered secondary can avoid giving up any big chunks to the Bears offense.
If the Bears play the exact game they did in three of their past four - against the Rams, Packers and Vikings - they will be going to Los Angeles next Saturday.
If the team we saw in San Francisco two weeks ago shows up Sunday, the Bears are in trouble.
The Bears probably aren't a touchdown better "team" than the Eagles, but if the Chicago defense fires on all cylinders, they'll win by more than that.
• Hub Arkush, the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at harkush@profootballweekly.com or on Twitter @Hub_Arkush.