Lions are Chicago Bears most puzzling opponent yet
Yes, the Detroit Lions have won nine of the last 10 games against the Chicago Bears dating to 2015. More reflective of these two clubs' current rosters is that the Lions have taken five of the last six.
But the Lions' 20-10 victory last December is the only one of those six meetings decided by more than 4 points and four of them were 3-point games.
As questions have raged around the country all week over whether the Bears are for real, the Lions are this year's toughest opponent to figure out.
The Lions' 3 wins this year are impressive, 26-10 over the New England, 31-23 over Green Bay and 32-21 over Miami, the only three teams to defeat the first-place Bears to this point.
The flip side of that, however, is that there is nothing statistically to suggest the Lions should hang with the Bears.
Offensively, Detroit is 21st in total offense, 21st running the ball, 20th passing it and 20th in points scored, while the Bears' defense is fifth in total 'D,' third vs. the run, 12th vs. the pass and fourth in points allowed.
On the other side, the Lions are 17th in total defense, a meager 30th vs. the run, fourth vs. the pass and 23rd in points allowed while the Bears' offense is 16th overall, seventh running the ball, 21st throwing it and sixth in points scored, although that last number is padded by 4 defensive touchdowns.
The most significant numbers could be the Bears' No. 2 ranking in turnover-takeaway ratio at plus-10, while the Lions are 22nd at minus-3. The Bears' defense has 21 takeaways, the Lions' just 8.
Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford's touchdown percentage is down slightly this year and his interception percentage up a bit, although that is misleading with 4 of his picks having come in the opener vs. the New York Jets. He has thrown just 2 over seven games since.
In the Bears' lonely 2016 17-14 victory, Stafford's 2 interceptions were huge, and he threw only 10 all season.
The key matchup on this side of the ball is likely to be the Lions' ground game against the Bears' impressive front wall as Detroit has averaged 32-164, 5.1 in its 3 wins and 30-111, 3.7 in 5 losses.
Rookie Kerryon Johnson (5.7) is the lightning the Bears will have to bottle, while LeGarrette Blount (3 TDs) is the thunder.
One of the main reasons Golden Tate is an Eagle is Chicagoan Kenny Golladay had replaced him as Detroit's top big-play threat, but Golladay has tailed off the last three games with just 6 catches for 95 yards total.
Marvin Jones Jr. is the Lions' other major offensive threat, but the way Kyle Fuller is playing, the Bears' pass 'D' has to rate an edge.
It also is worth noting that Khalil Mack is likely back - albeit probably at less than 100 percent - and the Lions allowed 10 sacks last Sunday at Minnesota.
The key for the Bears' offense is to get Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen untracked against a Detroit run 'D' pounded two weeks ago by Seattle (42-176, 4.2) and last week by the Vikings (23-128, 5.6) in lopsided losses.
The strength of the Lions' defense is cornerback Darius Slay, safety Glover Quinn and edge rusher Devon Kennard (5 sacks). Danger lurks if you can't keep them honest.
Force all 11 Lions defenders to play the run, and they usually are toast.
Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky needs to throw the ball better this week, particularly on third down, but this is a week where his contributions with his legs could be as valuable to winning as what he does with his arm.
Detroit's only game-wrecker on defense, "Ziggy" Ansah, returned last week for the first time since the opener and notched a sack of the Vkings' Kirk Cousins, so Bears tackle Charles Leno will have to be much better than he was last week.
Contrary to what you may have heard, this is not a must win for the Bears, but it could be a very big one, and it's there for the taking if the defense plays its game and the Bears cure what has ailed the running game.
• Hub Arkush, the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at harkush@profootballweekly.com or on Twitter @Hub_Arkush.