Analyzing this season just plain crazy
You'll have to excuse me this week.
My brain's a bit fried heading into the opening round of playoffs in both my leagues.
How messed up is this:
In one league, I have Drew Brees as my starting quarterback, and in the other I will face him.
OK, not too bad until I realized that ...
In my other league, I have Eli Manning as my QB ... and in the other I WILL BE FACING HIM.
Just what do I root for? Crazy.
So, in keeping with the “crazy” theme, here are some other oddities I dug up for this week's column. Feel free to email me any weird stuff that's happened in your league(s) this year as well.
They're out: It's always fun to see which prominent players missed your league's playoffs, but how's this for incredible: A team in my auction league that owns Aaron Rodgers AND Calvin Johnson didn't qualify. Other big names who will be “watching” the action: Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Miles Austin (those four were all on one team!), Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Chris Johnson.
Parity: Last year I wrote how it seems more fantasy teams seem to be alive as the playoffs approach. Still, I doubt any of you had a league with tighter records than my auction league: 8-5, 8-5, 8-5, 8-5, 7-5-1, 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 6-7, 4-8-1, 2-11.
Timing is everything: The week I was playing the best team in our league, the owner shipped Philip Rivers, Roy Helu, James Starks and John Kasay away for Drew Brees. Amazingly, that trade saved my season.
Rivers outscored Brees 28-15 that week and I only won by 5 points. A loss and I would have finished 7-6, out of the playoffs. Stranger still, the losing owner would have improved to 8-5 and had a first-round bye instead of ending up as the sixth seed.
And, of course, who do I play this week? Yep — the team with Brees.
Gronk: When we vote for fantasy MVP in the coming weeks, it would seem Aaron Rodgers is a lock. But what about Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski? Did you know he ranks THIRD overall among wideouts AND tight ends in total points? And since Week 9, he's No. 1 — and it's not even close.
RB oddities: In the last seven weeks (or the second half of our fantasy season), four names players who have turned around many teams' fortunes are: Seattle's Marshawn Lynch (3rd in that time with 7 TDs), Dallas' DeMarco Murray (5th; 136 yards per game from scrimmage), Oakland's Michael Bush (8th; 107 ypg, 4 TDs) and Miami's Reggie Bush (9th; 5 TDs, two 100-yard games).
WR oddities: The top five receivers since Week 7 are: the Giants' Victor Cruz (113 ypg), Dallas' Laurent Robinson (7 TDs), Minnesota's Percy Harvin (4 TDs last three), San Diego's Vincent Jackson (three big games, four duds) and Green Bay's Jordy Nelson (5 TDs).
Two guys who have disappeared are Buffalo's Stevie Johnson (41st) and Philly's DeSean Jackson (78th).
Costly change? If you own Tom Brady and lost last week by fewer points than your league awards for TD passes, you should be cringing. A third-quarter TD score by Rob Gronkowski was ruled a run because Brady's pass went ever-so-slightly backward. Somewhere, somebody lost a key game by an inch or two.
My teams: Well, miracles do happen. After a 2-4 start, my unit-league team squeaked into the playoffs with a 59-51 victory thanks to Eli Manning's last-minute TD and Mason Crosby's last-second field goal. The playoff run may be short-lived, however, as my opponent has Drew Brees, Ray Rice, Wes Welker and Mike Wallace. ... In the regular league, Brees (37 points) and Rob Gronkowski (24) led the way to a 124-107 win. I finished 7-6 there and am the third seed in the playoffs.
Good bets
ŸBucs RB LeGarrette Blount at Jacksonville. Just when we thought it was safe to count on Blount, he goes out and lays a 19-yard stinker on us. Much of the blame can be placed on the fact that QB Josh Freeman couldn't play, thus making even the abysmal Panthers run defense look like worldbeaters. Even if Freeman's not back, I'm counting on Blount not to make me look bad two weeks in a row.
ŸVikings RB Toby Gerhart at Detroit. This prediction is obviously only if Adrian Peterson does not return from injury. Gerhart has scored 11 and 13 fantasy points in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively. With Ndamukong Suh still serving his suspension, the plodding Gehart should rumble for 80-100 yards and a TD.
ŸBroncos defense and RB Willis McGahee vs. Bears. True, Denver looked awful against Minnesota. But with all-world LB Von Miller likely back this week, Bears QB Caleb Hanie stands no chance. As for McGahee, some owners may shy away, but my thinking is the Broncos will have the ball for over 35 minutes, which should result in about 25 carries for their primary back. Just make sure he's active as he is a bit banged up (knee).
ŸRavens QB Joe Flacco and WR Anquan Boldin vs. Indy. Boldin has averaged just 38 receiving yards with 1 TD the last four games. It will be the Ray Rice Show again Sunday, but Boldin should also shake loose for a score.
ŸRaiders QB Carson Palmer at Green Bay. Watch for Palmer to throw at least 2 TD passes in a 42-28 Packers victory.
ŸSaints WR Lance Moore at Tennessee. Since Week 8, Moore (with 5 TDs) is 21st among wideouts in fantasy points. You could do a lot worse if searching for a third wideout.
ŸRedskins QB Rex Grossman and WRs Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney vs. New England. If Indy's Dan Orlovsky can complete 30 of 37 passes for 353 yards, even the scatterbrained Grossman ought to be able to get near 300 on this defense.
ŸNiners WR Michael Crabtree at Arizona. Three weeks ago, Crabtree torched the Cardinals to the tune of 7 catches for 120 yards. He's remained hot since, so get him in there.
ŸChargers RB Ryan Mathews vs. Buffalo. If this kid would just stay healthy, he'd be a top-12 fantasy back for sure. The last two weeks, he's run for 249 yards on 35 carries (7.1 avg.) and now gets a chance to blaze by the bumbling Bills.
ŸBills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at San Diego. With just 6 TD passes and 8 turnovers in the last five games, fantasy owners have basically given up on Fitzpatrick. But this is a good spot for him as the Chargers have allowed Blaine Gabbert, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer to all throw for 2 TDs over the past four weeks.
ŸCowboys RB DeMarco Murray vs. New York Giants. Don't give up on the rookie because of last week (12-38). He'll rebound in a big way Sunday night.
ŸSeahawks defense vs. St. Louis. Against the woeful Rams, Seattle is a top-5 unit.
Bad bets
ŸBears RB Marion Barber at Denver. The Broncos have allowed 5 rushing TDs all season and none in the last five weeks. And you've watched Caleb Hanie the last two weeks, right? National writers are drooling all over Barber, but I can't see more than 60 yards out of the Barbarian this week.
ŸBears defense at Denver. If you own this unit, go get the Seahawks.
ŸChiefs WR Dwayne Bowe at New York Jets. All wideouts listed in the good bets will outscore Bowe.
ŸEagles QB Michael Vick and WRs Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Philly's doing its best FedEx impersonation … they're packing it in!
ŸPanthers RB Jonathan Stewart vs. Atlanta. He's way too risky to count on against a stout run defense.
ŸCardinals RB Beanie Wells vs. San Francisco. Eight carries for 33 yards and a lost fumble. Those were Wells' numbers just three weeks ago vs. the Niners.
ŸCowboys WR Laurent Robinson vs. New York Giants. With Miles Austin returning, Robinson won't see as many targets from Tony Romo. He still may be an OK play but is no longer a solid WR2.
ŸRams RB Steven Jackson at Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed 7 rushing TDs all season ... and the Rams score about once a month, so leave Jackson benched if at all possible.
ŸBengals QB Andy Dalton vs. Houston. Look for about 200 yards and 1 TD from Dalton.
ŸColts WR Pierre Garcon at Baltimore. Garcon scored the second-most points among wideouts last week, but he averaged just 28.7 yards the three games before.
jdietz@dailyherald.com