Seahawks vs. Bears: By the numbers
Cutler's INT-o-meter:
During Jay Cutler's two-year tenure with the Bears, there's a nearly foolproof way to know when they'll lose:
When Cutler throws no more than 1 interception: 16-4
When Cutler throws 2 or more interceptions: 1-10
The exception that proves the rule? The Bears' 27-13 home win over Minnesota on Nov. 14.
Olsen factor
On Nov. 8, 2009, Greg Olsen caught 3 touchdown passes as the lone bright spot in a 41-21 whipping administered by Arizona.
In the season-and-a-half since that game, Olsen's ability to get into the end zone has an outsized effect on whether the Bears win.
When Olsen catches a touchdown: 7-0
When Olsen doesn't: 7-10
Beast mode, least mode
Since being traded to Seattle prior to the Seahawks' Oct. 17 win at Soldier Field, brawny 24-year-old running back Marshawn Lynch's performance is a leading indicator of the day's eventual result.
In Seattle's 6 wins: Lynch has 6 TDs.
In Seattle's 7 losses: Lynch has 1 TD.
Getting to the QB
In their media release for Sunday's game, the Bears take care to note that 6 of Julius Peppers' 8 sacks in 2010 came during the last nine weeks of the regular season. But he won't be the most proficient 30-and-over sack artist on the field.
Seattle's 32-year-old Raheem Brock also recorded 6 sacks during the final 9 weeks of the regular season, then added 1 sack and forced a fumble during the Seahawks' playoff win over Green Bay. In the first Bears-Seattle game, Brock came off the bench to provide 1 tackle for loss, 2 quarterback hits and 1 pass breakup.
That having been said ...
Raheem Brock and Co., which tag-teamed for 6 sacks when Seattle won at Soldier Field 13 Sundays ago, won't be facing the same offensive line. Since Roberto Garza underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and resurfaced at right guard for Week 9, the Bears have allowed just 2.8 sacks per game as they've started the same line each week.
That's as opposed to the opponents' 4.4 sacks per game during the first seven weeks.
What to believe?
In the Bears' first 11 games this season, the team that produced more rushing yards won the game. That meant an 8-3 record for the Bears in both categories.
But in the Bears' final 5 games, only once (in the Patriots' whipping) did the team with more rushing yards go on to win the game.
Do we believe the year-long numbers and the general stereotype that you need to be able to run in “Bear Weather?” Or do we note that when the weather became colder, the need to win the running game went out the window?
A New Year's Eve party that hasn't been topped
Seattle hasn't won a playoff game away from home since Dec. 31, 1983, when Dave Krieg outdueled Dan Marino 27-20 in Miami.
This is not to suggest the Seahawks always flop when they hit the road during the postseason. The franchise's 26-year dry spell includes overtime losses at Houston (Jan. 1988), Green Bay (Jan. 2004) and Chicago (Jan. 2007).
Margin for error
There weren't any turnovers when Seattle beat the Bears in Week 6, but that doesn't accurately reflect the teams' year-long showings in one of the game's most important indicators.
The Bears owned a plus-4 turnover margin during the regular season. The Seahawks suffered a minus-9 turnover margin during the regular season, but earned a draw in last week's first-round win over New Orleans.