Making high school predictions can be a risky business

John Lorenz probably has a locker not much different from most high school athletes.

Shoes, socks, uniforms and practice gear are all likely jammed in there.

But the senior guard on the Elk Grove boys basketball team mentioned something else in his locker on Saturday night.

Predictions.

Predictions?

Yes, he taped the ones that pegged Elk Grove to finish last in the Mid-Suburban East this season. When Lorenz opens the locker and there's some motivation staring him right in the face.

And Saturday night he got his chance to face the so-called prognosticator.

“That fired us up and that's not going to happen,” Lorenz said confidenty and calmly. “We just wanted to prove that was wrong.”

Which probably isn't that great of a feat considering the off-track record through the years of picking who will finish where in Mid-Suburban League football, boys basketball and baseball. Now the big-school boys basketball tourneys and football state finals are added to the list of embarrassments.

But we keep doing it because it's fun to see how it all plays out. And it isn't the worst thing in the world to have a team picked fourth or fifth rise up to win a division title.

Not that it ever enters the prediction equation, but it's obviously not a bad story when a team wins and you're quoting kids saying, “Hey, we weren't even picked to finish near the top.”

You smile and take it because it goes with the territory. Trying to predict how a group of teenagers will perform as a team is about as predictable as coaching or parenting them.

That's one of the fun parts of making predictions.

Some teams unexpectedly find that perfect mix and put everything together. Other teams with more talent unravel at the seams that may come from issues behind the scenes.

Being the team with the ultimate target isn't easy. It's a role embraced by some teams and loathed by others.

Since the MSL has two six-team divisions, most coaches prefer to be picked between second and fifth. Most of them would rather take aim at rather than be the target.

And, let's face it, no one wants to be picked to finish last for obvious reasons.

But look at the first weekend of MSL boys basketball. Elk Grove and Palatine, picked to finish last in their respective divisions, won a pair of games last weekend.

While it was only the start of division play, and Saturday's games were crossovers that don't impact the standings, the Grenadiers and Pirates are already ahead of their preseason projections.

So, if these predictions are used as a motivational tool, that's cool.

If you want to make a point of it, as John Lorenz did in a calm and reasonable fashion, that's cool, too.

Just remember this story which I told when I took over the boys basketball state predictions from Bob Frisk.

More than two decades ago when I worked in Peoria there were three of us who predicted about 20 to 30 high school football games each week.

And one week there was a big problem. A school two of us picked to win had no chance because it had closed.

So, consider that a valuable lesson learned.

At least Arlington or Forest View won't slip into any preseason predictions.