Expaining away the expected ... and unexpected
Some aspects of the Bulls-Cavaliers playoff series are easy to explain.
For example, some are asking why Shaquille O'Neal wasn't very effective in Games 2 and 3. Well, remember when the Bulls couldn't stop Shaq with three defenders in the playoffs? That was 1995. Now Shaq is 38 and that's why he's having trouble running the court with Joakim Noah.
"I have to get Shaq on the floor a little bit more," Cleveland coach Mike Brown said, defying the old-age theory. "We have to get him more involved."
Along those lines, let's take a look at how this series has played out so far. The Bulls could make things interesting if they can beat Cleveland again in Game 4 at the United Center on Sunday afternoon.
Unexpected: Scores in the 100s.
This might be the strangest occurrence so far. During the regular season, Cleveland ranked sixth in points allowed at 95.6 per game. The Bulls were 24th in points scored at 97.5.
In the two most recent games, both teams finished above 100. In Game 2, the Bulls lost 112-102, then won 108-106 on Thursday.
The higher scores seemed to help the Bulls because they were least competitive in Game 1 when they totaled just 83 points.
"I don't think you want to get it too high," Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said. "But if the tempo's right, we're getting stops and getting out in the open court and getting some easy baskets, I think that's a benefit to us."
Maybe this means Cleveland is capable of tightening the defensive clamps. Or it could mean they're used to playing at a slower pace and the Bulls are smart to push the tempo.
Expected: LeBron James names his scoring total.
The Cavaliers superstar has averaged 39.5 points in the last two games and is shooting 57 percent for the series. The Bulls have no hope of shutting him down, but are probably doing the right thing by not sending many double-teams. The Cavs seem to play better when their scoring is balanced.
"My mindset is I can't let him go to the hole," Bulls forward Luol Deng said. "When he shoots, I'm going to challenge it. I think the percentages are way lower with him shooting from the perimeter than him getting into the paint."
Unexpected: So many second chances.
The Cavaliers typically are not very good at grabbing offensive rebounds, with 9.7 per game during the regular season, good for 27th in the league. So why has Cleveland dominated the offensive glass in two of the three games?
Second-chance points were a factor in the Cavs' second-half comeback in Game 3. With Cleveland chucking up 35 shots from 3-point range, Thursday's contest sometimes resembled a Gus Macker 3-on-3 game, where crazy shots beget crazy rebounds. But the Bulls definitely need to seal off the defensive boards.
Expected: Long-distance deliveries.
Launching 35 shots from 3-point range, the way Cleveland did in Game 3, is excessive for any team. But the Cavs did rely on their 3-point attack all year, averaging 19 attempts during the regular season.
In the last two games, the Cavaliers have shot 43.6 percent from 3-point range. They're getting good looks because they do a nice job of moving the ball after James or someone else breaks down the defense. The Bulls will hope Cleveland slides a little closer to its 38-percent shooting during the season.
Unexpected: Desperate Derrick Rose defense.
The Bulls were counting on a big series from Derrick Rose. But James sliding over to defend the second-year guard might help signal Rose's arrival as a true NBA star.
A few years ago, when the Bulls gave Miami a good battle in the playoffs, they could be shut down by a strong defense. Rose is one of those players who can score no matter what the defense is doing. If he can do that again Sunday, the Bulls might have a chance to pull even in the series.