For Bears, numbers prove instability at safety position
For most of Lovie Smith's tenure as the Bears head coach, the only constant at the safety positions has been change.
The last time the Bears went through a complete season with the same player at either safety spot for all 16 games was in 2004, when Mike Green made every start at strong safety.
That revolving door has spun just as quickly at strong safety as it has at free safety. Since the start of the 2004 season there have been a combined 40 lineup changes at the two safety positions, 20 at free and 20 at strong.
That's right, 40 lineup changes in six seasons.
Last year saw more safety turnover than in any of Smith's six seasons. There were 11 lineup changes over the 16 games, six at strong and five at free safety.
The Bears certainly need more continuity in their final line of defense, and they have browsed free agency for safety help but have yet to buy. So the search is expected to move to next month's draft, but they don't have a selection until the third round.
The Bears have had some success drafting safeties in later rounds but not much in terms of consistent, high-level production.
Kevin Payne, a fifth-round pick in 2007, has started five games at free safety and 16 at strong safety. Craig Steltz, a fourth-round pick in 2008, has made minimal contributions, yet he started the final two games last season, one at each safety position. Chris Harris was a sixth-round pick in 2005, and Green was a seventh-rounder in 2000.
Several factors account for the transient situation in the Bears' secondary, with inconsistent play and injuries at the top of the list.
The Rams' O.J. Atogwe is the pearl of free-agent safeties this year. But he hasn't received much interest, primarily because snagging the restricted free agent would be expensive since the Rams are expected to match almost any offer, although that isn't a guarantee.
It's worth noting that, in addition to picking off 18 passes and forcing 14 fumbles in the past four years, Atogwe has started 60 of 64 games, providing a rare combination of productivity and durability. Atogwe is the kind of athlete with range and big-play ability that the Bears desire, and that kind of player may not be around by the time the 76th pick in the draft rolls around.
"We just ask that guy to do an awful lot," Smith said, "and you need to invest a little bit more into the safety position. We've hit well on some lower picks, but sometimes you need to invest a little bit more, whether that's through free agency or through higher draft picks."
There are four outstanding free safeties in this year's draft, but then there's a major drop-off in talent.
Tennessee's Eric Berry, Texas' Earl Thomas and USC's Taylor Mays all are expected to be taken in the first 25 picks, and South Florida's Nate Allen could also sneak into the first round. After that the next true free safety might have only fifth-round value.
But there are a handful of strong safeties who could project to play free safety and might be worth a third- or fourth-round pick, including Oregon's T.J. Ward, Georgia Tech's Morgan Burnett, South Carolina's Darian Stewart and Kansas' Darrell Stuckey.
The role, however, is one that might be too much for most rookies.
"Right now everybody's looking for a more athletic safety," Bears general manager Jerry Angelo, who has the final say on draft day. "The demands of what they're being asked to do (are great), in coverage particularly (because) offenses are spreading defenses out. So teams are starting to look for more the athletic safeties, and in the last few years you're starting to see those players go higher in the draft.
"It's becoming a more and more difficult position to find and to play."
No one knows that better than the Bears.
Secondary shuffleSince the start of the 2004 season, Bears coaches have made 20 changes at free safety, and 20 at strong safety. Here's the breakdown:2004 Changes at FS: 3Changes at SS: 0FS: Mike Brown (2); Todd Johnson (10); R.W. McQuarters (2)SS: Mike Green (16)2005 Changes at FS: 5Changes at SS: 4FS: *Green (2); Chris Harris (13); Brandon McGowan (1)SS: *Brown (12); Johnson (1); Green (1), McGowan (2)2006 Changes at FS: 1Changes at SS: 3FS: Harris (2); Danieal Manning (14)SS: *Brown (6); Johnson (5); Harris (5)2007 Changes at FS: 4Changes at SS: 4FS : *Brown (1); Manning (13); McGowan (2)SS: *Adam Archuleta (10); McGowan (6)2008Changes at FS: 2Changes at SS: 3FS: *Brown (12); Kevin Payne (4)SS: Payne (12); Brown (3); Manning (1)2009Changes at FS: 5Changes at SS: 6FS: *Payne (1); D. Manning (10); Al Afalava (3); Josh Bullocks (1); Craig Steltz (1)SS: *Afalava (10); Bullocks (1); Payne (4); Steltz (1)*Denotes a different opening-day starter from final-game starter of previous seasonStarters since 2004Ind. starts FS SS TotalD. Manning 37 1 38M. Brown 15 21 36K. Payne 5 16 21C. Harris 15 5 20M. Green 2 17 19 T. Johnson 10 6 16A. Afalava 3 10 13B. McGowan 3 8 11A. Archuleta 0 10 10R.W. McQuarters 4 0 4J. Bullocks 1 1 2C. Steltz 1 1 2