Cost of health care reform understated

The Congressional Budget Office recently noted the federal budget deficit is on a trajectory that poses significant economic risks and will become unsustainable. The same can is true for many states, including Illinois.

The one "test" that seems to be missing from the health care debate is "probability." Given government's dismal track record of keeping spending and revenue in balance, what is the probability that the health care bill being rammed through congress will even come close to its cost- or deficit-reduction estimates? In essence, the U.S. has no money - in the sense that what we do have is already spent or committed, and so all future spending is paid for with borrowed money. Total debt is in the trillions. In my opinion, which I believe is supported by numerous examples (nearly all government programs), the probability of any of the estimates on the table actually being achieved is ... zero.

Unfortunately, there is no room for error. The health care plan on the table represents an eventual government takeover of the entire U.S. health care system. Once it's in place, there will be no turning back. Reform is needed, but government can't deliver it. The only reason so many think it can is because we as citizens don't pay for its failures in real time. If the bill passes, eventually health care will be the least of our worries.

The solution lies in the private sector where the probability of success is much higher and is documented by examples too numerous to count. The sooner the focus shifts to finding private sector solutions and reforms, the more time we will have to figure out how to get out from under all the existing government failures and their looming financial consequences.

Larry Grogan

Glendale Heights