Is Romo's fantasy star beginning to fade?
Before this fantasy football season began, I momentarily contemplated dropping Tony Romo in a keeper league and going after a star-studded field of free-agent QBs that included Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.
But this is my unit league, where we bid on players, and having Romo at 32 (out of 200) seemed like a steal. I didn't want to get into a bidding war over Brees and Manning, knowing both would go for 50-plus units and maybe 60 or more.
Well, where's Dr. Emmett Brown's DeLorean? I need to go Back to the Future and fix this mess.
My gut told me Romo wouldn't be the same this season without Terrell Owens, and that is very much the case. Romo does have 5 total touchdowns, including 3 in the season opener against Tampa Bay. But in that game, his receivers took advantage of a banged-up secondary and torched the Bucs on medium-length passes that turned into long, long touchdowns.
It was all smoke and mirrors. An illusion. Not reality.
We saw reality in all its glory the next week when Romo completed just 13 of 29 passes and threw 3 interceptions in a loss to the Giants. His fantasy day wasn't a total loss because he managed 1 TD pass and scored again on a run. Still, the evidence was building.
Then last week against the Panthers, he turned in a very Kyle Orton-like performance (22 of 33 for 255 yards and no TDs) in a 21-7 win.
Oh, great. So now he's a game manager? It's certainly looking like it.
The makeup of the Cowboys has changed drastically from last year. They have three solid to sensational running backs and a slightly above-average receiving corps. The problem is that, despite what happened in Week 1, WRs Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton aren't home run hitters the way Owens was. And they don't have the same special athletic ability Owens has to sniff out the football.
It means we are going to see a lot more conservative playcalling in Dallas and quite a few fairly boring stat lines out of Romo. I do see Romo, who had six 3-TD games or better in each of the last two seasons, having a few very nice games. But he's also going to stink up the joint now and then, leaving fantasy owners in the lurch.
My guess is he only ends up with three or four games with 3 TDs or more and finishes with fewer than 24 total touchdowns. Decent numbers, but he's falling out of "must-start" status, meaning that for the first time since he became a fantasy stud, his owners may actually consider their second option if it's a strong one.
Now, if I can just find that extra vial of Plutonium, I can set these time circuits for Sept. 10, 2009 ...
My teams: Much like Week 1, not pretty. My unit-league team (0-3) is 1 loss from a fire sale after a 59-44.5 loss, while my regular-league team (1-2) lost 95-70. Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Turner are killing that squad. The only good news is that my Daily Herald experts team (3-0) continues to roll. Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne and Matt Schaub are paving the way to a nice season.
Good bets
• Niners RB Glen Coffee vs. St. Louis. Coffee will be sweet Sunday and could help many fantasy owners cream their competition. Watch for 100-plus rushing yards and 1-2 TDs.
• Texans RB Steve Slaton vs. Oakland. Mired in an early season slump, Slaton began to emerge from his doldrums late in Houston's Week 3 loss to Jacksonville when he ripped off runs of 14, 11, 11 and 20 yards in his last 8 attempts. But teammate Chris Brown fumbled on the goal line, and the Jaguars were victorious. Slaton owners are hoping Brown's miscue leads to more goal-line opportunities for their guy, but Slaton himself has fumbled three times, and coach Gary Kubiak says he still has confidence in Brown.
• Bills WR Terrell Owens at Miami. With just 5 catches for 98 yards, Owens has been a massive disappointment. But after not catching a pass last week, I think he'll bounce back with at least 60 yards against the Dolphins. If he has a big game, I'd then seek to trade him to the highest bidder.
Bad bets
• Packers RB Ryan Grant at Minnesota. Nobody runs on the Vikings. Glen Coffee needed 25 carries to amass 54 yards last week. Grant will be lucky to surpass 65.
• Seahawks WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh at Indianapolis. Housh isn't a terrible WR3 play, but I'd go with the Colts' Pierre Garcon, the Bears' Devin Hester or even the struggling Braylon Edwards before I plugged Housh (14-145-0) into my lineup.
• Dolphins WR Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Buffalo. With Chad Henne at the helm Miami's air attack is officially grounded.
• For more good and bad bets, plus daily updates, message boards and much, much more, sign up for the Herald's fantasy football Web site at fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com.