In NFL fantasy football, 20-carry RBs rare
Two years ago, I made a simple observation that the days of the true feature back in the NFL were coming to an end.
It wasn't like I was Nostradamus or anything. You didn't need a crystal ball to see what has been transpiring before our eyes the last few years.
No longer are we seeing 8-12 players a season average 20 carries a game. Coaches are getting smarter and making sure their studs survive multiple seasons instead of breaking down a la Terrell Davis, Shaun Alexander or Jamal Anderson.
Two years ago, though, it was just a slight decline in carries by the main back. Now we're entering an era that hearkens back to the mid-70s when I first started watching football. Those were the days when teams would routinely give the ball to a second back - often the fullback - eight or more times a game. In 1977, for example, Walter Payton led the league with 24.2 carries per game, but teammate Roland Harper actually averaged 10.9 carries per game. The Steelers' Rocky Bleier, Franco Harris' teammate, averaged 10.4 carries; Clarence Davis, Oakland's second RB, averaged 13.9 attempts; and John Cappelletti, the Rams' second back, averaged 12.7 carries.
Then in 1978, Harper averaged 15 carries a game and piled up 992 yards even as Payton averaged nearly 21 carries per contest.
Now it's like we've gone back in time.
Check this out: I analyzed the stats for 15 different seasons and found that the number of RBs who average 20-plus carries a game is down to 1970s levels.
Players at 20-plus 18-plus Year carries per game per game
2008 4 9
2007 4 12
2006 9 18
2005 11 16
2004 12 17
2003 12 16
2002 7 14
2001 7 15
2000 8 16
1999 10 12
1979 4 4
1978 2 5
1977 5 9
1976 5 8
1975 3 6
Isn't that amazing? What's different now is that NFL passing offenses are so complex, and teams are encouraged to throw because it's so much easier to be called for pass interference compared to the mid-70s. Back in the day, many teams would live and die with their running game. From 1979-81, there were only four QBs who managed 4,000-yard seasons. By comparison, the last three years, we've seen 18 QBs throw for 4,000-plus yards.
So why the drastic reduction in rushing attempts per player? Injuries. Coaches are trying to keep players fresh. That's why - in fantasy circles - it's become more important than ever to grab guys who don't come off the field much (Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, etc.).
One thing I've always prided myself on is to try to predict our fantasy future 3-6 weeks out. Telling you to pick up Saints RB Mike Bell now isn't nearly as impressive as telling you to take him as a late-round flier at the end of August - which we did on the Daily Herald's new fantasy football Web site.
So, in that vein, which RBs should you be worried about as the season goes on? Let's take a look.
• Thomas Jones. Sure, you loved his 20-carry, 107-yard effort against the Texans, but did you know that 8 of those 20 carries came in the fourth quarter and that 77 of his 107 yards came on 2 carries? The Jets won't always have the luxury of running with the lead this season. Also, backup Leon Washington had 15 rushes, which is a sure sign the team will split the workload.
• Joseph Addai. The Colts' veteran managed just 2.5 yards per carry on 17 attempts. Meanwhile, rookie Donald Brown carried the ball 11 times to the tune of an equally unimpressive 3.3 average. Addai will post some so-so games, but his productivity will be severely undermined by the rookie.
(For other backs on the list, sign up for our Web site at fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com).
My teams
Just an awful start. I lost 85-54 in my unit league as Steve Slaton, Brandon Marshall and Roddy White apparently all thought the preseason was still going on. In my regular league (where I lost 114-76), I'm already regretting taking Kurt Warner too early. On the bright side, I scored the most points in our Daily Herald experts league and prevailed 127-58.
Good bets
• Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. the Bears. If the Bears' safeties bite on Big Ben's pump-fakes the way Tennessee did in the second half of the season opener, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward will both eclipse the 100-yard receiving mark again. Watch for Roethlisberger to come out firing against a very banged-up defense.
• Vikings QB Brett Favre at Detroit. We're not expecting 6 TD passes - a la Drew Brees - but don't be surprised if Favre throws at least 2 against the woeful Lions.
Bad bets
• Cowboys RB Marion Barber vs. the Giants. MB3's history against the G-men is fairly awful. The past two seasons he has scored just once and hasn't managed more than 70 yards, gaining 54, 2 (two!), 35 and 65 yards in four games. That 2-yard game came on 8 carries.
• Broncos WR Eddie Royal vs. Cleveland. The Broncos figure to run, run, run all over the Browns defense. Royal will be hard-pressed to eclipse 60 yards.
• For more good and bad bets, go to fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com.