If Bears finally get their share of luck, anything's possible

The Bears could reach the Super Bowl this year.

That's the good news.

The bad news is approximately 10 other NFC teams can make the same claim.

So what separates them all?

Not much.

A hamstring here, an ACL there.

Most of them, including the Bears, are 8-8 teams, who, with a bit of luck and a bounce or two, can elevate to 11-5 or 10-6, which is where I see the Bears landing.

For that to happen, however, so many things have to go right that if enough go wrong, the Bears could just as easily finish 7-9.

I'm tempted to place the Bears at 11-5, or 12-4, but too many questions linger to go overboard on their offensive potential.

And the biggest question resides right in the middle of the Bears' biggest issue: the defensive line.

It starts with Tommie Harris. If he were to play 16 games like Tommie Harris at his best, the Bears would go to the Super Bowl, and if I could hit the lottery tomorrow, I'd finally see the links in Scotland I've always dreamed of walking.

Harris looked slow, out of shape and in pain during the preseason - none of which is new for Harris - but other than that he looked great.

With a mediocre linebacking corps and a frightening secondary, Harris is the key to wreaking havoc in the middle, getting a push, forcing double teams, creating a pass rush, and keeping monster blockers from destroying Brian Urlacher, who appears to be healthy himself.

When that happens, when the corners aren't exposed, the Bears have a decent defense. When it doesn't, they have huge problems.

Then, there are the special teams, which would be a lot better with Devin Hester concentrating on kick and punt returns, but since the Bears insist on continuing with this receiving experiment, it makes both their return game and their receiving corps suspect.

On offense, the line still has to prove it can protect Jay Cutler, and as good as he is at escaping, it only takes one blindside hit to ruin a shoulder or a knee - and the Bears' season.

Maybe second only to concerns about Harris is the worry that Matt Forte will get abused again this season.

Still without a legitimate backup after the Kevin Jones injury, the Bears will be tempted to ride Forte even more than they did a year ago.

And because Cutler has yet to develop a trust in that weak receiving group, Forte is going to catch the ball a ton. Every one of those touches adds up and shortens his season.

The same holds true for tight end Greg Olsen, who's started 11 games the last two years, but is being counted on to lead the Bears in 2009 receptions.

With Cutler, Forte and Olsen, the Bears could easily have three Pro Bowlers this season, but if any of the three get hurt, the house of cards could come down.

So the Bears simply have to have someone else catch the football and spare those two having to get every tough first down.

Those are the issues, though every team has several, and that's why there's no clear favorite in the North or in the NFC, where the luckiest team (see: Bears 2006) often reaches the Super Bowl.

And that could be the Bears again.

Most of the talk has centered around Cutler and the Bears, and Brett Favre and the Vikes, but don't overlook the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who's poised to have a huge season.

Based on Cutler, there's incredible optimism in Chicago and very high expectations that Cutler can't possibly match.

He's going to be very good, and if the Bears don't succeed, it won't be due to Cutler failing. It will most likely rest right in the middle of the defensive line.

It's worth noting that the day before the Cutler trade, the Bears looked like a 6-10 team.

Now, most have the Bears at 10-6 and some will forecast even 12-4 or 13-3.

It's a lot to put on one man's shoulders.

With luck and health such a huge factor, it seems a bit unfair, too.

But maybe, just maybe, it's the Bears' turn for some of that luck to come home again.

brozner@dailyherald.com